The Edmonton Oilers are 20 games into the season, sitting on a league-best 14-3-3 record and 31 standings points. That kind of start is hard to knock, especially for a team that has made slow starts part of its recent identity. But the wins are starting to come with a warning label.
Their 3-2 overtime escape against the Philadelphia Flyers was powered by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, but the performance itself was messy. Edmonton was outshot 33-24 and, at five-on-five, was outchanced 17-11. The Oilers also controlled just 40.7 per cent of the expected goal share in that situation against a Flyers team sitting near the bottom of the standings and playing uninspiring hockey.
That wasn’t an isolated problem. On Monday night against the Rangers, Edmonton was outshot 31-20, outchanced 21-12 at five-on-five, and managed only 39.6 per cent of the expected goal share in that game state.
The season-long numbers at five-on-five tell the same story. Edmonton ranks 26th in shot attempt share at 47.4 per cent, 27th in expected goal share at 46.1 per cent, and 24th in scoring chance share at 47.9 per cent. Yet the Oilers are also carrying a sixth-ranked shooting percentage of 11.6 per cent, a third-best save percentage of .920, and a third-ranked 103.6 PDO.
That’s a very different profile from last season through 20 games, when Edmonton was 9-7-4 for 22 points, tied for fifth in the league. At that point, the Oilers ranked 17th in shot attempt share at 49.9 per cent, 23rd in expected goal share at 48.3 per cent, and 27th in scoring chance share at 46.2 per cent. Their shooting percentage sat 28th at 8.1 per cent, their save percentage was 31st at .876, and their PDO was 32nd at 95.7.
The biggest split on this team is tied to Connor McDavid. With him on the ice at five-on-five this season, the Oilers have outscored opponents 26-8, good for a 76.5 per cent goal share, while posting a 58 per cent expected goal share. With McDavid off the ice, they’ve been outscored 25-16, with a 39 per cent goal share and a 39 per cent expected goal share.
The injury excuse that made sense early in the year doesn’t carry the same weight now. In Wednesday’s win over Philadelphia, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was playing his 11th game, Zach Hyman his ninth - though third straight - and Jason Dickinson his eighth straight game.
Since Dickinson returned eight games ago, the Oilers have outscored opponents 6-1 with McDavid on the ice and held a 61.3 per cent expected goal share. With McDavid off the ice in those same games, they’ve still outscored opponents 7-5, but the expected goal share drops to 38.7 per cent.
The underlying numbers point to more than just a superstar dependency. Personnel is part of the issue.
Rookie fourth-line centre Owen Michaels has been taking a beating at five-on-five. Edmonton has been outscored 12-5 in his minutes and is controlling just 26.6 per cent of the expected goal share with him on the ice. When he’s off, the Oilers have outscored opponents 37-21 and controlled 50.7 per cent of the expected goal share.
Connor Murphy has had similar struggles. Edmonton has been outscored 14-5 with a 36.2 per cent expected goal share at five-on-five when he’s out there, while the team has outscored opponents 37-19 and controlled 51.2 per cent of the expected goal share without him.
The most glaring combination has been Michaels and Murphy together. They’ve shared 110 of Michaels’ 207 minutes, and in those shifts the Oilers have been outscored 5-2 while controlling just 16.9 per cent of the expected goal share.
When they’re separated, Edmonton has outscored opponents 34-12 and controlled 53.3 per cent of the expected goal share. Similar numbers show up when Michaels is paired with Shakir Mukhamadullin or Ty Emberson.
So what looks like a Connor McDavid problem may actually be an Owen Michaels and Connor Murphy problem.
There are a few ways to fix it. One would be sending Michaels to the AHL to get more seasoning, though that opens the question of who steps in, especially with Josh Samanski struggling early. Another would be adjusting usage, including the possibility of splitting Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard to create more balance on the blue line.
Either way, the Oilers may need to make a change soon. Their upcoming road trip starts Saturday in Toronto against the Maple Leafs, followed by a rematch with Philadelphia on Sunday.
After that, the schedule tightens further with visits to the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Lightning next Thursday, and then the Carolina Hurricanes and St. Louis Blues on another back-to-back the following weekend.
In Other News...
Oilers Escaped Again But One Problem Is Starting To Loom
Zach Hyman gave Edmonton the kind of lift it needed in a 3-2 overtime win over the Philadelphia Flyers, and the Oilers kept their strong start rolling at 14-3-3. Tristan Jarry also turned in a solid night in goal, helping Edmonton escape with two points in a game that still had enough loose moments to leave a familiar aftertaste.
Mike Babcocks concern afterward was not about the result so much as the defensive lapses that kept the Flyers in it. With a six-game road trip coming up and Toronto on deck on November 14, the Oilers are carrying a good record and a growing reminder that the margin for error can disappear fast if the details do not tighten up. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Suddenly Have A Goalie Decision That Could Get Complicated
Ahead of a game against the Flyers, Mike Babcock found himself talking less about the opponent and more about a problem that could shape the Oilers next stretch: what to do with a goaltending group that suddenly looks crowded. Devon Levi and Tristan Jarry have both given Edmonton solid play, giving the staff reasons to trust either one in the crease while the team waits for its veteran option to work back into the picture.
Frederik Andersen is still about a month and a half away from returning, and his eventual comeback adds another layer to a situation that already has some moving parts. Edmonton may end up sorting through a three-goalie rotation, but the longer this holds together, the more the front office will have to think about whether the answer comes internally or through a move at the trade deadline. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Escape Flyers But This Win Will Split Fans
The Oilers needed overtime to get past Philadelphia 3-2, and the result came with enough good and bad to keep the postgame conversation lively. Zach Hyman gave Edmonton a major boost with two goals, including his first multi-goal game of the season, while Tristan Jarry made a string of key saves to keep the Flyers from taking control when the game tightened up.
Evan Bouchard eventually finished it in overtime, giving Edmonton the extra point and a win that felt more like a survival test than a clean statement. For a team still trying to find a steadier rhythm, the night offered plenty to like, but also enough uneven stretches to leave fans debating what mattered more: the comeback feel, the goaltending, or the way the game had to be rescued late. [Read more 🡒]