The Edmonton Oilers have been scoring like a team that can’t miss.
Through eight games, they’ve already put up more than five goals in four of them, and they’ve scored at least three in every contest this season. Saturday night’s win over the Utah Mammoth was the latest example, and it left fans asking the obvious question: can this keep up?
The answer is probably no. But it’s not as simple as saying the goals will dry up and the offence will fall back to ordinary. Edmonton’s attack is running hot, yes, but it’s also not built on empty noise.
The clearest sign is the shooting percentage. The Oilers are sitting at 17.61 per cent, far ahead of the NHL average of 9.66 per cent.
Last season, they were at 9.18 per cent, so this is a massive jump. If they were finishing at league-average rates, they’d have about 15 fewer goals already, which likely means a couple fewer wins too.
That said, the underlying numbers paint a more complicated picture. At five-on-five, Edmonton is below league average in expected goals per 60 minutes and also lower than its own pace from last season.
Yet the Oilers are second in the NHL in actual goals for per hour of play. In plain terms, they’re not generating a ton more quality chances than everyone else, but when chances do come, they’re burying them.
The same theme shows up in the high-danger data. Edmonton is producing more than a full high-danger chance per game fewer than the league average, but it’s still outscoring opponents. That kind of run doesn’t usually last forever, and the numbers say regression is coming.
It’s also fair to note the schedule context. Outside of the last two games against Utah, a team expected to contend in the Central Division, Edmonton hasn’t exactly been tested by the league’s heavy hitters.
The Oilers have faced the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks, who are expected to be in the mix for the Pacific Division or a wild-card spot, but not much more than that. The Vancouver Canucks are off to another difficult start, and the Seattle Kraken look stuck in the middle.
Edmonton still hasn’t played the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, or Dallas Stars. The upcoming matchups against the Minnesota Wild and Carolina Hurricanes should reveal more.
But this isn’t just a story about shooting luck. The Oilers’ defensive work has improved since a shaky opener against Vancouver, and that’s helping create the kind of offence that looks effortless on the scoreboard. Strong stick work and turnovers have sparked transition chances and breakaways all season long.
Connor McDavid’s second goal in the win over Utah was a perfect example. He stripped John Marino, then raced away for a breakaway finish. Alex Formenton’s first goal of the season against the San Jose Sharks came off the same kind of sequence, with Edmonton forcing a turnover in the defensive zone and Mathieu Joseph setting him up for a breakaway the other way.
There’s also help on the way. Zach Hyman returned Saturday and added some needed depth on the Oilers’ second line.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could be back this week, while Matt Savoie is still about a month away. Last season, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, and Savoie combined to generate roughly two individual high-danger scoring chances per game, and their return should help spread Edmonton’s offence beyond the top line.
Jason Dickinson is also reportedly close to returning, and even if his game isn’t centered on scoring, his presence should create better matchups for the Oilers’ skill players.
That depth matters, especially with the power play sitting 10th in the league at 25 per cent. For Edmonton, that’s merely fine by their standards.
Nugent-Hopkins coming back should give that group another boost, and it also reunites the unit that set the NHL record for the best power-play percentage in 2022-23, with Tyson Barrie getting an honourable mention in that mix. A sharper power play would only add to the pressure on opponents and could lead to even more time in the offensive zone.
So yes, the scoring pace should come down. A team averaging nearly five goals a night is not likely to live there all season.
But Edmonton has created some of this surge through its own play, not just by getting fortunate bounces. Better defence has led to cleaner transitions.
Injuries have pushed other players into bigger roles. Reinforcements are coming.
The Oilers may not keep lighting up scoreboards at this rate, but there’s enough here to believe the goals won’t vanish either. And if the finishing cools, the defence and goaltending will need to do more of the heavy lifting.
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Nugent-Hopkins Return Creates A Big Oilers Top-Six Decision
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The biggest question now is where Nugent-Hopkins fits once the puck drops. Edmonton is expected to use him in a prominent second-line role, and the ripple effect could be felt throughout the forward group as the staff sorts out the best mix around him. With the Oilers trying to settle into a rhythm early, his return adds needed stability, but it also forces a lineup decision that could reshape the balance of the entire top six. [Read more 🡒]