The Edmonton Oilers are rolling, but the numbers behind the start still leave room for a hard look.
Through 10 games, the Oilers sit at 8-1-1, and Connor McDavid is once again driving the offense at a ridiculous level. He has 8 goals and 23 assists for 31 points, making him one of only four players to get past 30 points in his 10th game, joining Gretzky, Lemieux and Mike Bossy. Leon Draisaitl is on a goal-a-game pace as well, which makes this look a lot like peak McDavid-Draisaitl.
At five-on-five, though, the picture is messier. Edmonton opened the season with a 17-10 goal edge in its first five games, then slipped to a 10-11 mark over the next five.
Over the past two games, the Oilers have been outscored 2-7 at five-on-five. McDavid’s ice time is also climbing: he’s averaging 23:46 a night, 47 seconds more than he did a year ago.
Still, the top line has been overwhelming the competition. Against a Carolina group that included Slavin-Chatfield and plenty of the Aho line, Edmonton’s best unit controlled the night. William Carrier was in the mix too as the one-man equalizer, but the McDavid group still came away with another strong offensive showing.
The concern is what happens after that line. The second line was solid, but not dominant, and there’s an expectation that Matt Savoie will help when he settles in.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman also need time to find their game. Right now, McDavid and Draisaitl together and separately own a 77 percent five-on-five goal share, 20-6, while the rest of the team sits at 7-15, or 32 percent.
There’s no appetite to split the pair yet while they’re this hot, but the Oilers clearly need a second line that can really go.
The third line has been the bigger issue. It owns a 42 percent goal share and a 38 percent expected share, and Carolina found a way to target it.
Brind’Amour got Seth Jarvis out against the Michaels’ line for 5:36, and that matchup turned into a quick 2-0 result. A fix is needed there.
The fourth line, by contrast, has done its job. In 57 minutes this season, Frederic-Howard are 2-2 in goals and 46 percent in expected goals, and there’s a hope that Babcock gives them more ice.
Edmonton’s win came with some uneven defensive play, too. Devon Levi came up with several major saves in a wild game and, in this view, was probably the third star.
Ekholm, Bouchard and Walman all had moments they’d want back, though there’s an understanding that mistakes happen against strong teams. Ekholm’s puck race was a tough one, Bouchard had a couple of rough-looking sequences on film, and Walman brings chaos but also value the team needs.
The Shea-Murphy shots versus expected goals line was noted as hilarious.
With Ekholm out, Shakir Mukhamadullin is set to come in, with Damien Carfagna or Tomas Cibulka also possible from the farm. The projection is that Babcock will roll out Walman-Bouchard, Shea-Murphy, and Mukhamadullin-Emberson.
There’s also a short turnaround ahead, and the Maple Leafs are next. Edmonton’s 1-4 five-on-five performance in this one, combined with the previous game’s 1-3 mark, was enough to raise eyebrows about what comes next. The Leafs are not the Hurricanes, and that may be a relief.
In Other News...
Oilers Suddenly Have Questions Their Record Was Hiding
The Oilers early record had bought them plenty of breathing room, but the 7-2 loss to the Maple Leafs in Toronto was a reminder that the standings can hide as much as they reveal. Edmonton fell to 8-2-1 and suffered only its second regulation loss of the season, even with Leon Draisaitl scoring twice to keep the offense from going completely quiet.
What stood out more than the score was how exposed Edmonton looked in its own zone and in a few line combinations that never seemed to settle the game. Former Oilers Jack Roslovic and Troy Stecher were part of the damage, and the rough night in goal only added to the unease, leaving the kind of follow-up questions that tend to linger after a teams first real blowout loss. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Blue Line Just Lost A Key Piece At The Worst Time
The Oilers are dealing with a tough break on the back end at a time when every defensive minute matters. Mattias Ekholm is sidelined with a concussion, leaving Edmonton without one of the stabilizing pieces that usually helps set the tone in its own zone and transition the puck cleanly up ice.
That absence is especially noticeable because Ekholm typically works alongside Evan Bouchard, a pairing that has helped drive strong possession for the Oilers this season. With Calgarys Mikael Backlund nearing a return and other Western Conference injury updates starting to shift, Edmontons own blue line suddenly has a much more urgent question hanging over it. [Read more 🡒]
Jack Roslovic Returns To Edmonton With Oilers Fans Watching One Thing
Jack Roslovics early run with the Toronto Maple Leafs has given him a little more visibility than usual, and it has also put his old NHL stops back in the spotlight. Since signing a two-year deal with Toronto, Roslovic has picked up four goals and 10 points in his first 10 games, including a goal and three points against the Columbus Blue Jackets and an assist against the New York Rangers, two of the teams he has already faced from his previous stops around the league.
For Edmonton fans, the more interesting part is seeing Roslovic look back on his time with the Oilers while sizing up the next chapter of his career. He has already spent time with Columbus, New York and Edmonton, and he had plenty of praise for captain Connor McDavids skill and work ethic. What stands out now is how Roslovic views the lessons he took from those stops, and what his return to Edmonton might mean when the attention turns back to the building he knows well. [Read more 🡒]