The Edmonton Oilers have put together the kind of start that usually quiets the noise: 8-2-1 through 11 games, tied for fourth overall in the NHL, and sitting on top of the Pacific Division with the Vegas Golden Knights while still holding two games in hand.
That record has come with some quality wins, too. Edmonton has already taken down the Utah Mammoth, Minnesota Wild, and the defending Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes.
But the numbers underneath the standings are telling a different story, and they point to a team that may be getting away with too much right now.
The biggest question is whether the Oilers should stop stacking Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together.
There’s no denying the top line has been elite. With Vasily Podkolzin breaking out alongside them, the group has been producing at a huge rate, and head coach Mike Babcock has leaned into it through the first 11 games. On results alone, it’s easy to understand why.
Still, the warning signs have been there. Edmonton’s injuries have already thinned out key areas of the roster.
Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jason Dickinson all missed time, and while Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins have returned, Dickinson is still out. Matt Savoie has also been absent all season after looking like a legitimate top-line option with McDavid late last year.
On defense, the Oilers had mostly avoided major issues until recently, but losing Mattias Ekholm is a big hit. He’s arguably their most complete defender and a vital partner for Evan Bouchard on one of the NHL’s best pairings.
The problem with keeping McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line is what it does to the rest of the forward group. Edmonton already doesn’t have much center depth, and when its two best centers are deployed together, the lineup below them gets stretched thin.
That has shown up badly whenever the stars head to the bench.
At five-on-five with McDavid and Draisaitl off the ice, the Oilers have been outscored 18-7. That works out to a 28.0 percent goals-for percentage, and their expected goals share is only 38.8 percent. In plain English: Edmonton’s depth forwards are getting buried.
That concern gets even louder when you look at the team’s PDO. Through the first 10 games, Edmonton carried a 105.1 PDO, which is far above the league norm of around 100 and usually signals that regression could be coming. The number dropped after the loss to Toronto, but it’s still flashing as a warning sign.
Saturday’s ugly loss to the Maple Leafs made the issue harder to ignore.
The Oilers can still score when their stars are on the ice. The trouble is everything that happens after that. Too many shifts are ending with Edmonton pinned in its own end, and too many minutes are being asked of a roster that is already dealing with injuries and shaky depth.
That’s why the argument for separating McDavid and Draisaitl is getting stronger by the day. It would break up one of the most dangerous combinations in hockey, and there’s no guarantee either new look would keep humming at the same level. But at some point, Edmonton has to weigh the risk of weakening its best line against the damage being done everywhere else.
The tradeoff is obvious. Splitting them up could help spread the talent around and give the depth players a better chance to survive shifts alongside an elite creator.
Keeping them together has a certain appeal, especially when they’re putting up video game numbers. But with the bottom six taking a beating night after night, it may be the less sensible option now than at any point this season.
The Oilers are winning, but the warning lights are on. If they keep ignoring them, that early cushion in the standings could vanish fast.
In Other News...
Oilers Suddenly Face A Goaltending Question They Cant Ignore
The Oilers are having to manage the kind of goaltending shuffle that can quietly change a stretch of the schedule. Devon Levi has gone on injured reserve, forcing Edmonton to bring back Matt Tomkins on emergency depth as it tries to keep the crease stable while other clubs around the league work through their own injury issues, from Taylor Halls expected return in Carolina to Rasmus Ristolainens absence in Philadelphia.
What makes the move more awkward is that Levis injury has not been disclosed, and the short-term outlook only adds to the uncertainty. Edmonton now has to navigate at least the next week without a clear timeline for one of its goalies, a reminder that depth charts can get tested fast in the NHL, especially when the margins between a normal week and a problem are so thin. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Hot Start Is Hiding A Lineup Concern Fans Know Too Well
The Oilers have found enough early success to cushion a familiar kind of roster debate, but the start has also revived a question Edmonton keeps circling back to: whether the club is leaning too heavily on Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together. On the surface, the opening has been encouraging, and theres no reason for panic this early, yet the bigger picture still points to how much the lineup depends on those two driving the offense when theyre on the ice.
Splitting them would be a way to spread the wealth and make the group deeper from top to bottom, which is exactly the kind of adjustment that tends to matter when the schedule tightens and opponents start keying on one pairing. The concern in Edmonton is less about the stars themselves than what happens when theyre not setting the tone, and that is where the conversation around the rest of the forward group gets a lot less comfortable. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Just Sent Trent Frederic A Message He Cant Ignore
Trent Frederic found himself on the outside looking in against the Carolina Hurricanes after Mike Babcock chose to send a message to Edmontons bottom six. The Oilers coach made it clear the standard for those depth forwards goes beyond simply being around the puck, with a heavier emphasis on work rate, winning battles and creating more pressure in the offensive zone.
Babcock also acknowledged Frederics willingness to mix it up, but said the physical side alone is not enough to secure a regular spot. Frederic appeared to take the decision in stride, saying he understood the move and was focused on improving his game and earning his way back into the lineup. [Read more 🡒]