The Edmonton Oilers are off to an 11-2-3 start, and the numbers say they’ve already put themselves in strong shape to chase the Pacific Division or at least lock down one of the top two spots.
Through this stretch, Edmonton ranks No. 2 in Goals-60 at 4.04 in all game states, No. 7 in GA-60 at 2.81, and No. 4 in goal share at 59 percent across all strengths. The only teams ahead of them in goal share - the Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild - are all stronger defensively. That’s the kind of company that makes you start asking bigger questions about where this season could go.
Mike Babcock has already made a major imprint on the organization. It’s too early to hand out a full coaching verdict, but the early returns are strong, and the most encouraging part is the way Edmonton’s best players are showing a wider range of skills.
There’s still plenty to sort out, though. If the McDavid-Draisaitl line stays together all year, the next jobs are clear: find two wingers for Nuge who can drive play, settle on a second and third pairing that works, and figure out which goalie is the best playoff option on the roster. The roster still needs to be tracked line by line, with health, offense and defensive play all under the microscope.
The top line is loaded with eye-catching numbers. The expected GA-60 is excellent, McDavid’s offense is beyond what normal humans can do, Draisaitl is outperforming expectations, and Vasily Podkolzin is doing fine, though there’s room for more. Podkolzin is holding the spot for now, but Zach Hyman or Matt Savoie could eventually take it, and both names come up naturally when talking about the offense.
Draisaitl’s foot speed is not where it was a year ago, when he was over the 90th percentile, but his fastest max speed came in the New Jersey game, so the expectation is that his top end is still coming back. There’s no major concern there.
The next line is newer, and Colton Dach’s rough start shows up in the expected GA-60. As a trio, the line has a 2.85 GA-60 in 47 minutes, and the question is whether it can beat that number by enough to matter.
So far, the answer is yes on offense: the group is running at a 6.41 GF-60. Nuge’s max speed is only average right now, but last season he was flying, and the expectation is that he gets back there.
Dach, meanwhile, has been very encouraging.
Offensively, though, there’s still a worry. Nuge is on a hot streak, but Dacha and Kapanen are below par. Hyman and Savoie are expected to arrive in the next few weeks, so this doesn’t look like a finished second line yet.
Dickinson is another player worth watching. His XGA-60 should be strong - it was in the low 2s after he arrived last season - and if he can get to 1.50-plus points per 60, that would qualify as a good year.
He needs to stay healthy, and more speed would help. Last season he was a little above average at 62nd percentile, so there’s room for that to improve.
Alex Formenton brings speed and has produced offense, but there are concerns about his play when the puck is 50-50. Dennis King on Twitter has been pointing that out often this season.
Mathieu Joseph was at the 77th percentile last season, and that max speed should rise. His points per 60 are fine, and the XGA-60 with Dickinson is zero.
The bottom end of the lineup raises more questions. Trent Frederic’s speed is back, and he should eventually find his offensive range, but the fourth line needs to outscore opponents, and that doesn’t look likely with a 2.8 XGA-60.
Ike Howard should be in the Dach role, but he isn’t there right now, and it remains to be seen whether he’s still around after the new year and where he fits on the depth chart. Owen Michaels is a decent right-shot center who needs time in the AHL, and the move is to send him down now and maybe bring him back as a spring recall.
The defensemen will be next, and there’s a significant clue in that group about what comes up in 24 hours.
On the Lowdown today, Bagged Milk from Daily Faceoff Edmonton will join to preview tonight’s game. The show will also preview the NFL weekend and look at the best quarterbacks in the NFL draft next spring.
The Elks are over 30,000 tickets sold, and the big game Saturday will be part of the discussion. The show runs noon to 2 p.m. on Sports 1440 and YouTube.
In Other News...
Oilers Just Saw Why The Rangers Could Be In Real Trouble
The Rangers finally snapped a four-game skid with a win over the Blues at Madison Square Garden, but the larger picture around the club still looks uneasy. New York has been able to lean on its home ice to stay afloat, yet the season has taken a hit since Igor Shesterkins season-ending injury forced Dylan Garand into the crease and changed the feel of the roster almost overnight.
Now comes the part that will test whether that bounce-back was real or just a brief reset. The Rangers are headed into a difficult road trip against several Pacific Division teams, and their margin for error is thin if the scoring from key players does not pick up and the defensive support in front of the goalies does not tighten up. For a team trying to steady itself, the next stretch could say a lot about how much trouble this group is really in. [Read more 🡒]
Former Oilers Forward Evander Kane Nears A Surprising Career Turn
Evander Kane is heading toward a notable new chapter after his NHL run, with his agent Dan Milstein saying the former Oilers forward will be signing with a KHL team and playing the upcoming season in Russia. Kane, who last suited up in the NHL with the Vancouver Canucks, has bounced around the league over the course of his career, including a stint in Edmonton that made him a familiar name to Oilers fans.
The move marks a sharp turn for a player who has spent years in the NHL spotlight, and it now appears his next stop will come far from North America. An official announcement is expected in the next few days, which should finally settle where Kane is headed as he prepares for a season overseas. [Read more 🡒]
Mike Babcock Just Added To The Oilers' Early-Season Swagger
The Oilers strong start has created the kind of mood where even a late morning-skate arrival can turn into a lighthearted moment. Mike Babcock addressed the delay in a media session and, in doing so, only added to the sense that Edmonton is carrying itself with confidence early in the season.
Sitting atop the Western Conference with 25 points through 16 games, the Oilers have given themselves plenty of room to smile, and Babcocks remarks fit right into that atmosphere. It was a small exchange, but it underscored how steady and upbeat things feel around the club right now, even when the details of a routine skate become part of the conversation. [Read more 🡒]