The Edmonton Oilers keep running into the same hard truth: when Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard are off the ice at five-on-five, the attack falls apart.
With those three driving play, Edmonton’s five-on-five goal total is 25-9, a 74 percent goal share. When all three are resting, that number flips hard the other way: 4-18, an 18 percent goal share.
The overall five-on-five mark sits at 29-27, or 52 percent, but the split is brutally wide. The top end is elite.
The rest of it is not close.
That’s the same kind of structural problem the Oakland Seals ran into at the 1967 expansion draft, when they took a strong defense led by Bob Baun and a veteran goalie in Charlie Hodge from the Canadiens, then leaned on WHL players while passing on AHL and CPHL talent. The result, as the source notes, was fatal: Oakland could not score enough to keep up in games.
Edmonton’s answer, at least in theory, is a healthy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jason Dickinson. But that doesn’t mean the Oilers suddenly have a line that can drive offense on its own.
Over the past three seasons, including this one, Nugent-Hopkins is 29-42, or 41 percent, without the Glimmer Twins. The rest of the roster sits at 40 percent goal share without Nuge and the Glimmer Twins.
He’s a good player, but the numbers say he is not the kind of five-on-five driver this team needs. “He is a wonderful player, but not a driver of offense at five-on-five.
Never has been.”
The idea of a Nuge-Hyman line sounds appealing enough, but the three-season sample is 42 percent goal share. There’s also the possibility of Savoe-Nuge-Hyman, though that group has only three minutes together across those same three seasons. It might work, but the size isn’t there, and there’s no guarantee Mike Babcock even goes there.
The second pairing’s five-on-five goals-against rate is described as workable, if not ideal, but the bigger issue remains up front: the Oilers need a scorer who can lift the Nuge line, and there doesn’t appear to be one ready to do it. At some point, Babcock may have to “check down.”
One possible route would be Podkolzin-Nuge-Hyman as a third line, with the top two centers taking on different wingers to make that possible. That would mean Connor McDavid skating with Matt Savoie plus Frederic or Dach, while Leon Draisaitl could end up with Ike Howard and Kasperi Kapanen. But the source is clear that Babcock may not buy into that kind of deployment, and it’s not certain he can convince McDavid or Draisaitl to accept it.
So for now, the Oilers are left with the same uneasy equation: a generational talent pushing through a regular season for the ages, and a team structure that still makes Stanley feel out of reach.
On the Lowdown today, Jonathan Willis’s new book How to Win Forever is being celebrated, with Willis set to join at 12:40. Kevin McCurdy will be on at 1 to talk about the Nuge line, the practice units from yesterday, and how long this uneasy run might last, along with the World Series and CFL weekend. The show runs from noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
In Other News...
Oilers Suddenly Face A Battle Of Alberta Lineup Question
The Ducks are trying to sort through their own injury picture as they wait on several key pieces, but Edmontons attention is closer to home with the Battle of Alberta approaching. Around the league, teams are starting to get players back on the ice, and that usually forces coaches to rethink combinations, minutes and matchups almost as soon as the updates come in.
For the Oilers, the timing matters because the roster has already been in a state of flux, and any fresh availability can change how the lineup is built heading into a rivalry game. There are still moving parts, though, and one of the bigger questions now is whether Edmonton can count on a pair of familiar names being ready to slot in when the stakes get high. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Linked To Young Winger But One Trade Hurdle Remains
Ivan Miroshnichenkos name has surfaced as a possible fit for the Oilers, with the young winger reportedly being allowed by Washington to explore trade options after struggling to find steady NHL playing time. Edmontons interest makes sense on paper, given the appeal of adding a skilled, still-developing forward, and the Capitals have at least acknowledged that Miroshnichenko has done his part off the ice and in practice.
Spencer Carbery has spoken highly of Miroshnichenkos professionalism and work ethic, but Washingtons forward depth has left him squeezed out of regular opportunities. That is the part Edmonton has to weigh carefully, since the conversation now is less about talent than about whether the right trade structure can be found to get a deal across the finish line. [Read more 🡒]
Ekholm Return Nears As Oilers Wait On One Crucial Decision
Mattias Ekholm is moving closer to a return for the Edmonton Oilers after missing two games because of a head injury suffered against the Carolina Hurricanes. He was back on the ice in practice and gave a positive update on how he was feeling, a welcome sign for a team that has spent plenty of time shuffling bodies in and out of the lineup while trying to stay steady through the early grind.
Jason Dickinson is also inching toward a comeback after sitting out most of the season with injuries, but the Oilers still do not have firm return dates for either player. Edmonton continues to navigate a broader injury picture that includes Zach Hyman, Devon Levi, Matt Savoie and Frederik Andersen, and the next question is whether Ekholm is ready in time for a marquee Battle of Alberta test Wednesday night. [Read more 🡒]