Stan Bowman has already stirred the pot, bringing in Alex Formenton and Filip Hallander, while Babcock has bumped Owen Micharls up from the group of uncertain prospects at camp. And with that comes the early-season squeeze: some players are being pushed into roles that don’t fit cleanly, while others who could handle those jobs are fading out of view.
There’s no neat way to chart who stays and who goes in a Mike Babcock lineup, because he leans on gut feel more than anything else. So for now, the clearest way to sort through the mess is by looking at individual five-on-five expected GA-60.
Across the NHL, 384 forwards have logged more than 17 minutes at five-on-five. Edmonton’s group, at least by that metric, is supposed to have three players in the top 96, six in the top 192 and nine in the top 288.
At the top, the Oilers’ first line is doing exactly what a coach dreams about. The group has been overwhelming opponents, posting an 11.35 goals-60 rate and carrying a 7-0 goal edge through four games.
It’s been a runaway success. I don’t love that Babcock is still stubborn about Draisaitl playing wing, and that issue will probably have to be addressed eventually, but the production right now is impossible to ignore.
The second-line tier tells a different story. Edmonton has only two players there, which lines up with what you see on the ice.
The group is hurt by injuries, but Colton Dach is also playing out of position, and Jones is getting a boost from what looks like some luck. Both are seeing softer matchups, though that isn’t unique to them among Oilers who aren’t tracking at this expected GA-60 level.
The third-line range is where the veteran wingers land, and that feels about right given that Edmonton spent most of the first four games with only one true NHL center available. None of those players looks like an immediate roster casualty.
The real pressure sits in the final tier, where the healthy-scratch conversation lives whenever the Oilers want to open a spot for Hallander or Zach Hyman. Formenton stands out most here. The expectation was that he would be a dependable two-way veteran, but he’s been out of the NHL for several years, and Babcock may simply be leaving him in the lineup while hoping he catches up.
Then there are the kids, and their situations are tied to who has the strongest inside track. Micharls appears safe because Babcock likes him in the middle, and scratching him would force Draisaitl back to center.
Howard, meanwhile, is a Bowman addition, and the general manager has a call to make. Babcock doesn’t seem inclined to use him with Leon, and a trade could even enter the picture.
For now, Howard stays in, though that could change once Hallander and Hyman are both available again, possibly before the end of the road trip and as soon as tomorrow.
That leaves Samanski, who has Dallas Eakins in his corner. Should he be in the lineup?
Hell yes. Will he be there tomorrow as the No. 4 center in San Jose?
I think so, though Frederic could also get a look at center.
If you’re going strictly by the eye test, the scratch tomorrow should be Max Jones. If you’re going by the numbers, it’s Samanski.
Small sample size and all that, but Samanski should be playing ahead of Jones. Whether Babcock sees it that way is another question, and he might simply hold Hallander and Hyman out again tomorrow anyway.
Either way, the churn is here already. The roster movement we expected in the early going is happening now.
In Other News...
Bruins Fans Have A Real Matthew Poitras Trade Question Again
The Oilers have had Matthew Poitras on their radar, and that alone is enough to keep the conversation alive in Edmonton. Bostons young forward has the kind of skill set that tends to draw attention from teams looking for affordable upside, and for the Oilers, it fits into the broader search for help without having to swing for a bigger, costlier name on the market.
Still, interest is only part of the equation. Edmontons pursuit has not turned into a completed deal, and the gap between checking in on a player and actually landing him can be the difference between a useful depth addition and a story that stays in the rumor pile. For now, Poitras remains one of the more intriguing names tied to the Oilers, with the real question being whether the sides ever get close enough to make it happen. [Read more 🡒]
Mike Babcock Is Already Changing A Familiar Oilers Problem
The early returns under Mike Babcock have given the Oilers a better opening than they have had in a while. Edmonton is off to its best four-game start in five seasons, and even with key forwards missing, the club has settled into the kind of rhythm that had been elusive in recent years when the season usually began with more frustration than momentum.
Babcock has already made a noticeable adjustment to a familiar problem by leaning harder on his top talent in the same spots, rather than spreading it around and hoping the depth holds everything together. With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl driving one line, Edmonton has looked more stable through the first week, but the bigger question is how long that approach can hold while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman and Matt Savoie remain out. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers May Not Be Done Addressing One Key Need At Center
The Oilers have already made one move to shore up the middle by acquiring Filip Hallander from the Pittsburgh Penguins, a tidy add for a team that has been looking for a right-shooting center. But the work there may not be finished. Edmonton has also been circling Boston Bruins forward Matthew Poitras as another option, keeping the door open on a possible fit if the right deal materializes.
For now, the conversation has not gotten simple enough to close, and that is where things stand for the Oilers as they keep evaluating their center depth. Poitras remains on their radar, and the possibility of revisiting talks later still hangs over the situation depending on how the market shifts and what happens elsewhere on the roster. [Read more 🡒]