The Edmonton Oilers have already done the quiet work of reshaping their roster this offseason. Now comes the harder part: finding the move that actually changes the ceiling.
Stan Bowman kicked things off by trading Darnell Nurse on the first day of free agency, opening up meaningful cap room. Edmonton then used that flexibility to address goaltending, defence, and the bottom six. With most of the roster now in place, the Oilers still have $5.925 million in cap space, according to PuckPedia, and the focus has shifted to one final addition: a top-six forward.
That search has naturally pushed Edmonton toward the trade market, and one name worth watching is Pittsburgh Penguins winger Rickard Rakell. The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta recently tied the Oilers to Rakell, with Pittsburgh reportedly open to offers. Rakell has two years left on a five-year deal carrying a $5 million AAV, and Edmonton has both the cap room and the trade pieces to make it happen.
The attraction is easy to understand. Rakell scores goals.
He’s a seven-time 20-goal scorer in the NHL, and four of those seasons have come in the last five years. At five-on-five, he averages about 15 goals per season - the same total Jack Roslovic produced in Edmonton last season.
With Roslovic gone in free agency, that kind of finishing would fit. But the comparison stops there.
Rakell brings more than Roslovic did away from the puck. By HockeyStats’ Wins Above Replacement model, Roslovic’s even-strength defensive value over the past three years ranked better than only four per cent of NHL forwards, while Rakell checked in better than 62 per cent. That’s a real difference, and it matters for a team trying to fill out its top six without creating another soft spot.
He also offers something Edmonton could use on the power play. There may not be much appetite to tinker with a unit that has worked for years, but Rakell would give the Oilers a different look on the bumper or left flank than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Last season, Rakell fired 14.5 shots per hour with the man advantage, while Nugent-Hopkins was at 8.59. That kind of shooting threat opposite Draisaitl is at least worth considering after so many years of leaning on a pass-first option there.
Still, Rakell is not the complete answer. He can find dangerous shooting areas, but he doesn’t do much with the puck on his stick.
His entries and exits sit near the bottom of the league, his skating speed and rush offence don’t stand out, and his playmaking is only average. Those are not fatal flaws if he’s riding shotgun with McDavid and Draisaitl, but they do limit the upside.
The Oilers could use more players who can carry the puck and create, not just finish.
That’s why the fit is complicated. Rakell would make Edmonton better, and his contract is tidy enough that the Oilers could move on when he reaches 35.
But the price has to make sense. He has value, just not the kind that should drain the cupboard.
If Bowman goes after him, there needs to be enough left over for a bigger swing later.
There’s also the question of opportunity for the younger players already in the system. Bringing in another top-six winger could crowd out Isaac Howard, whom Edmonton acquired last summer.
Howard may not be ready to make an NHL impact this season, but the Oilers made an investment in him. At some point, he needs a real chance to show what he can do.
That’s the part that gives this idea pause. A useful scorer like Rakell is tempting, but unless the Oilers are making a true home-run move, there’s an argument for letting Howard get a look first.
The last time Edmonton chose the veteran route over a young winger, it signed Jeff Skinner instead of giving Dylan Holloway a top-six shot, and then lost Holloway to an offer sheet. That memory lingers.
For now, Rakell looks like the kind of trade target that improves the roster without necessarily solving the biggest problem. The Oilers need to be careful not to spend their final swing on a player who helps, but doesn’t move the whole picture enough.
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