Suspicious Minds was a monster hit for Elvis Presley 57 years ago, but the song’s path to the top started with Francis Zambon. He had already cut it in 1968 under the name Mark James, using the same arrangement and those strong female backup vocals, yet it never caught on.
Elvis took it to No. 1 the next year. Zambon also co-wrote Always on my Mind and won a Grammy for it in 1980 for the Willie Nelson version.
That’s a useful reminder when looking at the Oilers right now: sometimes the best version of a song, or a team, still depends on who’s singing it. The current issue is the same one Todd McLellan faced in 2016-17 - what happens when Connor McDavid leaves the ice. Last night at five-on-five, Edmonton outshot the Flyers 11-6 with McDavid on the ice, a 64 percent share, but was outshot 8-21, or 28 percent, when the captain sat.
The difference from that 2016-17 group is that McLellan handled it better than Mike Babcock is handling it now. Natural Stat Trick has that McDavid Oilers team at 53 percent shot share at five-on-five, with the club at 48 percent without McDavid. This season, it’s 59 with him and 40 without him.
That matters because the season has hit a pressure point. Against a non-playoff team, the numbers from the forward groups told the story pretty clearly.
Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl logged 16:28 and posted an 11-6 shot edge with a 73 percent expected-goals share. Hyman-Nuge-Dach played 7:06, went 4-2 in shots, scored once, and finished at 86 expected goals.
Those two lines did enough to win the night even with goaltending that was less than what Tristan Jarry provided last night, when he stopped 26 of 27 at five-on-five and 30 of 32 overall. The top line didn’t score and looked a little disinterested at times, but it’s a long season. The second line, especially Zach Hyman, was excellent.
Babcock’s approach is easy to see. He’s building the team brick by brick. But with the road trip coming, he has to decide whether to leave the third and fourth lines alone or make a change.
The bottom-six results were uneven. Dach-Dickinson-Frederic played 5:00, went 2-3 in shots and had a 59 expected-goals share. Formenton-Michaels-Joseph logged 4:46 and was buried 0-6 in shots, with a 10 expected-goals share and a 0-1 goal edge against.
I think we’ll see Dach on the Dickinson line and Kasperi Kapanen on the Nuge line during the road trip, but Hyman-Nuge-Kapanen, which went 6:31 and was 1-4 in shots with a 17 expected-goals share, did not have a good evening.
The bigger issue is Owen Michaels. Babcock has to make a call there because the numbers are ugly.
Michaels is sitting at a 30 percent shot share at five-on-five, a 29 percent goal share and a 27 percent expected-goal share. For some perspective, Lennart Petrell - who was famously overwhelmed - posted a 44 percent shot share, a 32 percent goal share and a 39 percent expected-goal share in a brutally difficult 2011-12 season.
If Babcock keeps deploying Michaels the same way, he’s ignoring both the numbers and the eye test. Michaels is a good young player, and the suggestion here is to send him to Bakersfield, let the game slow down for him, and bring him back in the new year. As for Formenton, the view is less flattering: “he’s as soft as Downy on plays great and small.”
On the blue line, the pairings had their own mixed bag. Bouchard with Ekholm played 18:51, went 11-8 in shots, and finished 1-0 in goals with a 50 expected-goals share.
Shea-Murphy logged 16:00 and was 4-9 in shots with an 18 expected-goals share. Mukhamadullin-Emberson played 9:19 and went 0-6 in shots, with a 0-1 goal edge and an 11 expected-goals share.
Emberson and Mukhamadullin were 0-5 with the Michaels line, and Formenton gets the dash-1 there. Shea-Murphy were 0-3 with that group, though the 4-6 shot count looks better. Ekholm and Bouchard spent less than a minute with Michaels.
The road trip is the next test, and Babcock is the one who has to steer it. The projection here is 2-3-1, though it could go worse.
The fourth line is rough. Dickinson’s wingers don’t seem settled no matter who is there.
Still, the goalies are fine, the system is suppressing chances, and the Glimmer Twins with Bouchard are a hockey cheat code. The team may go 6-0 just to quiet critics like me.
But there’s reason to worry.
In Other News...
Oilers Escaped Again But One Problem Is Starting To Loom
Zach Hyman gave Edmonton the kind of lift it needed in a 3-2 overtime win over the Philadelphia Flyers, and the Oilers kept their strong start rolling at 14-3-3. Tristan Jarry also turned in a solid night in goal, helping Edmonton escape with two points in a game that still had enough loose moments to leave a familiar aftertaste.
Mike Babcocks concern afterward was not about the result so much as the defensive lapses that kept the Flyers in it. With a six-game road trip coming up and Toronto on deck on November 14, the Oilers are carrying a good record and a growing reminder that the margin for error can disappear fast if the details do not tighten up. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Suddenly Have A Goalie Decision That Could Get Complicated
Ahead of a game against the Flyers, Mike Babcock found himself talking less about the opponent and more about a problem that could shape the Oilers next stretch: what to do with a goaltending group that suddenly looks crowded. Devon Levi and Tristan Jarry have both given Edmonton solid play, giving the staff reasons to trust either one in the crease while the team waits for its veteran option to work back into the picture.
Frederik Andersen is still about a month and a half away from returning, and his eventual comeback adds another layer to a situation that already has some moving parts. Edmonton may end up sorting through a three-goalie rotation, but the longer this holds together, the more the front office will have to think about whether the answer comes internally or through a move at the trade deadline. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Escape Flyers But This Win Will Split Fans
The Oilers needed overtime to get past Philadelphia 3-2, and the result came with enough good and bad to keep the postgame conversation lively. Zach Hyman gave Edmonton a major boost with two goals, including his first multi-goal game of the season, while Tristan Jarry made a string of key saves to keep the Flyers from taking control when the game tightened up.
Evan Bouchard eventually finished it in overtime, giving Edmonton the extra point and a win that felt more like a survival test than a clean statement. For a team still trying to find a steadier rhythm, the night offered plenty to like, but also enough uneven stretches to leave fans debating what mattered more: the comeback feel, the goaltending, or the way the game had to be rescued late. [Read more 🡒]