Last season, the Edmonton Oilers found a useful fix on the blue line when they brought in Connor Murphy. Paired with Darnell Nurse, the stay-at-home defender gave the club a steady shutdown look down the stretch, and the numbers backed it up: just 2.1 expected goals against per hour, a 52 per cent expected goal share, and an 8-6 edge in goals.
That partnership is gone now. Nurse’s $9.25 million contract became too much of a hurdle for the front office, and he was moved to San Jose on July 1. Since then, the Oilers have been trying to find Murphy a new fit, and that search has not gone smoothly.
For most of this season, Murphy has been skating with puck-moving defender Ryan Shea. On paper, the pairing makes some sense.
Murphy isn’t known for his passing, so a partner who can handle more of the puck work should help. In practice, it has gone the other way.
Murphy and Shea have been outscored 7-4 together and have posted a 42 per cent expected goal share.
A few explanations have been floated for the rough results, but none of them really hold up. One theory points to usage, since Murphy and Shea are the only Edmonton blueliners starting more shifts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone.
That sounds like a reasonable excuse until you look closer. Most shifts begin on the fly, and Murphy has 30 defensive-zone starts at five-on-five compared to 21 in the offensive zone.
Even so, 274 of his shifts have started on the fly, and a good second pair should not be sitting around 40 per cent in possession numbers.
The competition argument doesn’t do much better. According to PuckIQ, Murphy has spent 27 per cent of his ice time against elite competition this season, down from 34 per cent with the Oilers last year.
Shea’s share against elites has also dipped slightly, from 29 per cent with the Pittsburgh Penguins last season to about 28 per cent this year. The matchups are not tougher.
There’s also the idea that Mike Babcock’s decision to load up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl with the top defensive pair has left Murphy and Shea with the leftovers. That part is true, but it still doesn’t explain everything.
Away from McDavid and Draisaitl, Murphy and Shea have only managed a 41 per cent expected goal share. Last season, Murphy and Nurse were at least able to reach 48 per cent.
Shea, for his part, has not been the issue. All Three Zones tracked microstats for seven Edmonton games this season, and Shea’s puck work in his own end has remained strong.
In minutes away from Murphy, he has produced a 68 per cent expected-goal share and outscored opponents 6-2. The results suggest he can help the Oilers; he just has not clicked with Murphy.
The fit problem appears to come down to style. Both players have trouble defending entries, and even if Shea is good at getting the puck out, repeated failures at the blue line can keep a pair trapped in its own zone.
Murphy’s foot speed is another issue. He ranks third last among all NHL players in 18+ MPH bursts per hour, and without Nurse’s skating alongside him, he looks more exposed in Babcock’s faster system.
There are options if the Oilers want to tinker. Mattias Ekholm is one possible partner, since even at 36 he still brings mobility, entry defense, and puck movement.
Shea has also posted strong results with Evan Bouchard in a small sample, which could be worth exploring. Another route would be to reduce Murphy’s five-on-five role and use him as part of a defensive third pair with Shakir Mukhamadullin, whose entry-defense microstats have been promising in a small sample this season.
Murphy and Shea are both useful players, but together they have not worked. The numbers don’t point to zone starts or teammate quality as the full answer.
The chemistry just isn’t there. With 25 standings points already in the bank, Babcock has enough cushion to start mixing and matching before the pairing drags on any longer.
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