With the NHL’s new collective bargaining agreement set to fully kick in tomorrow, teams are racing to get ahead of the market on young players - and the latest deals around the league may be giving the Oilers a pretty clear blueprint for Matt Savoie.
The Vancouver Canucks already leaned into the trend by giving Zeev Buium an eight-year contract with a $9.38 million AAV, a massive commitment for a player with just 76 career NHL games. Then the Boston Bruins followed Monday with Fraser Minten, locking up the 22-year-old for seven years at a total of $50.4 million.
That’s the kind of movement that changes the conversation for a player like Savoie.
There’s understandable hesitation around handing out a long-term deal after only one full season, and the risk is obvious. If Savoie tops out as a 15-20 goal scorer, a big extension could start to look heavy. But if he keeps climbing, the price only goes up - and fast.
That’s where the Noah Ostlund deal becomes especially useful. The Buffalo Sabres signed Ostlund to an eight-year contract with a $6.6 million AAV, and he may be the better comp for Savoie than Minten.
Ostlund was drafted seven picks after Savoie in 2022, and both players posted 0.45 points per game in their rookie seasons. The difference, though, is that Savoie also brought penalty-killing value right away, something Ostlund doesn’t provide.
That makes Ostlund’s deal look like a floor for Savoie, while Minten’s $7.2 million AAV feels more like the ceiling. Savoie probably deserves a little more than Ostlund because of the penalty killing and a little less than Minten because he isn’t a centre.
So what does that mean in real terms? A seven-year deal at $6.95 million AAV makes a lot of sense.
If Savoie develops into a 25-plus goal scorer and settles in as a regular top-six winger, that number could look like a bargain. It would also give the Oilers the kind of cost certainty teams crave, especially with Zach Hyman and Vasiliy Podkolzin already signed for at least the next two seasons.
For Savoie, that kind of deal would mean nearly $50 million in guaranteed money and a chance to keep building his game next to either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid. It could also set him up for a shot at a much bigger payday later, when he’d be a UFA at 30.
And that’s the real tension here: wait, and the number could explode.
If Savoie breaks out next season, scores 25 goals, and adds some playoff success, he could easily be looking at something north of $8.5 million to $9 million on a long-term deal next summer. If not that, then the Oilers might have to go the bridge route, which has already come back to haunt them with players like Darnell Nurse and, to some extent, Evan Bouchard.
There’s also the danger of letting him get close to a summer where an offer sheet becomes a possibility.
The Oilers have seen how quickly things can change. Vasiliy Podkolzin signed a three-year, $2.95 million deal before last season, and after his goal total jumped from eight to 19, he’d likely be making well north of $5 million next year if he were negotiating now.
That’s the modern NHL in a nutshell: young players get paid, and smart teams have to decide which ones are worth betting on early. Savoie looks like exactly the kind of player Edmonton should be willing to take that swing on.
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For Edmonton, the bigger takeaway is how quickly these rumors can grow around a team that is always being monitored for defensive help. And in the same stretch of league news, Ottawa is trying to lock up Drake Batherson on a long-term extension before the new CBA closes the door on eight-year deals, while Montreal rewarded Martin St. Louis with a multi-year commitment through 2029-30 after the Canadiens rise under his watch. [Read more 🡒]