The Oilers have a chance to do something smart before Matt Savoie’s price tag gets any bigger: lock him in early.
That’s the lesson buried in Carolina’s latest rise. The Hurricanes have built a contender without leaning on the kind of superstar contracts that dominate the top of the league. Instead, they’ve found value in players who weren’t fully established when they signed long-term deals, and they’ve turned that into real roster strength.
Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake are the clearest examples. Both are under contract for eight more years, with Stankoven at $6 million and Blake at $5.12 million.
Together, they were part of a second line that mattered in a big way for Carolina. With Taylor Hall on the wing at $3.17 million, that trio outscored opponents 18-7 at five-on-five in 211 minutes and controlled the pace of play.
The timing of those deals matters, too. Carolina signed both players last July, before either had fully broken out.
Stankoven, 23, had 20 goals and 52 points in 102 games at that point. He was also one of the key pieces the Hurricanes got back when they traded Mikko Rantanen to the Dallas Stars.
Last season, he delivered 21 goals and 44 points in 81 regular-season games, then added 11 goals and 16 points in 19 playoff games.
Blake’s path was even more of a bet. The 22-year-old had just finished his rookie season with 17 goals and 34 points in 80 games, and Carolina still committed to him on a long-term deal.
That gamble paid off quickly. He responded with 22 goals and 53 points in 81 regular-season games, then chipped in seven goals and 20 points in 19 playoff games.
That’s the model the Oilers should be looking at with Savoie.
He just finished his rookie year with 18 goals and 37 points in 82 games, and he entered the season as the top prospect in Edmonton’s system. His year really split into two different stretches.
In his first 58 games, Savoie averaged 13:50 of ice time and spent most of his time lower in the lineup while adjusting to the NHL. He scored nine goals and 18 points in that span and finished minus-2.
The five-on-five numbers were ordinary: the Oilers had 48.6 per cent of the shot attempts and 47.6 per cent of the expected goals with him on the ice, while being outscored 32-27. His on-ice PDO sat at 97.5, including a .889 save percentage.
After the Olympic break, things changed. Savoie moved up the lineup and spent 63 per cent of his five-on-five ice time with Connor McDavid over the final stretch. In 24 games, he scored nine goals and 19 points, matching and then passing his first-half production in far fewer games.
There is one area where he doesn’t yet stack up with Stankoven and Blake: isolated impact. HockeyViz had Savoie driving play at the level of a low-end fourth-liner over the full season, while Stankoven checked in at a second-liner level and Blake at a low-end first-line level. That said, those full-season numbers don’t capture how much better Savoie may have looked after the break.
If Edmonton wants to get ahead of the market, the window is there. With upcoming collective bargaining agreement changes, the Oilers would have until Sept. 16 to sign Savoie to an eight-year extension. Evolving Hockey projects that kind of deal at a $4.8 million cap hit, while a seven-year contract would come in at $4.344 million.
Compared with Blake’s extension, that price feels reasonable. Their offensive production before extension eligibility was similar, and Blake’s underlying impact was clearly stronger.
The real question is whether Savoie would take that kind of deal in a rising cap environment.
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