For the Edmonton Oilers, a fresh crop of unqualified RFAs should have felt like a window opening.
That’s the kind of list that makes a team start circling names, especially when the goal is to find young players who can actually tilt the ice. Matias Maccelli jumps right off it.
He’s 25, listed at 5.11 and 187 pounds, and the Toronto Maple Leafs chose not to qualify him. That alone makes him worth a hard look if the price stays in the right neighborhood.
Maccelli’s numbers make the case. He put up 2.14 points per 60 at five-on-five last season, which ranked second among Maple Leafs forwards behind William Nylander.
In 71 games, he finished with 14 goals, 25 assists and 39 points. He’s a pure skill player and a strong passer who can finish, and Puck IQ had him spending 33 percent of his time against elite competition while running eight percent above average relative to his Leafs teammates.
There’s also a fit argument here. Maccelli could deepen the Oilers’ top-six options and slot beside a skilled center.
He struggled with John Tavares as his center, posting a 40 percent goal share, though the pair also had a 56 percent expected share, according to Natural Stat Trick. His max foot speed landed in the 75th percentile, and his hardest shot last season checked in at the 80th percentile.
Bobby Brink is another name on that not-qualified list, and he brings a different profile. He played for two teams, finishing with 68 games and a 15-15-30 line.
He’s small at 5.08 and 169, but his foot speed is in the 93rd percentile and he can drive possession. His expected goal share has been above 50 percent in each of the last two seasons.
Last year he produced 1.53 points per 60 at five-on-five with Philadelphia, then just 0.76 in 13 games with the Minnesota Wild.
Jonatan Berggren also split the season between two clubs, Detroit and St. Louis, and his combined 51 games, 8 goals, 14 assists and 22 points don’t exactly jump off the page.
But his five-on-five production was solid: 1.83 points per 60 with the Red Wings and 1.69 with the Blues. He’s 5.11, 195, and his max speed sits in the 71st percentile.
Philipp Kurashev is listed as a center, though he really functions more as a winger. He posted 1.88 points per 60 at five-on-five for the San Jose Sharks last season and finished at 51 percent in goal share, even if his expected share was only 42 percent. He’s 6.0, 190 and 26 years old.
Arthur Kaliyev is the one with the eye-catching scoring line. He buried 40 goals in the minors last season, but he needed 256 shots to get there, good for a 15 percent shooting rate and 3.66 shots per game. For a player in his prime to score 40 and still not get NHL time, that points to slow boots and questionable defensive play.
There was also a separate idea floating around involving the Bruins. Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe sent out a tweet suggesting a Nurse-to-Boston deal for Mason Lohrei could work, with the Oilers retaining close to $2.8 million of Nurse’s contract. That would leave Edmonton choosing between a $9.25 million Nurse and a $6 million Lohrei.
Lohrei has some things going for him. He’s 6.05 and 218, his max speed was in the 66th percentile, and he can move the puck.
But he didn’t see much elite competition, and while his five-on-five goal share last season was 61 percent, his expected share was only 45 percent. The size and skating are there, but the physical impact isn’t what you’d hope for.
On the Lowdown today, the discussion will cover Nurse, free agency, the World Cup, the Jays, the Elks and more. It’s the round table, so there will be blood. Join me, Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
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What makes the decision interesting is the structure around it, because Edmonton is not treating this as a simple starter-and-backup arrangement. The plan is to carry Andersen, Levi and Tristan Jarry in a three-goalie setup, a rare approach for a team trying to build stability rather than just patch a hole, and it leaves the Oilers with plenty to sort out before opening night of that season. [Read more 🡒]