Oilers’ Five-on-Five Struggles and the Ike Howard Dilemma: Is It Time to Let the Kid Play?
The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in a familiar, frustrating place: elite talent up top, inconsistent depth down the lineup, and a growing list of questions as the trade deadline looms.
Despite scoring at the same five-on-five rate as last season, the Oilers are bleeding more goals the other way - 2.78 goals against per 60 minutes this year compared to 2.52 last season. That may not sound like a massive jump, but in a league where margins are razor-thin, it’s the kind of slip that can derail playoff hopes. And so far, the team’s efforts to tighten up defensively - including bringing in two new goaltenders and reshuffling the blue line - haven’t done the trick.
But the bigger concern? The offense isn’t pulling its weight, especially from the bottom six. And perhaps most surprisingly, the magic between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl - the duo that’s long been the Oilers’ nuclear option - has fizzled in five-on-five play.
The McDavid-Draisaitl Dip
Let’s start with the top. McDavid and Draisaitl are still producing - just not together.
When they’ve shared the ice at five-on-five this season, their goal production has taken a steep dive. The trio of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman, which was electric a year ago (6.04 goals per 60), is now generating just 3.09.
That’s nearly cut in half.
It’s not that McDavid or Draisaitl have lost their touch individually. Draisaitl is having a standout year on his own, and McDavid’s solo numbers are in line with last season.
But the chemistry that once made them lethal as a pair has gone missing. Whether it’s a system tweak, linemate fit, or just a cold stretch, the Oilers can’t afford to wait much longer to find answers.
Depth Lines, Depth Problems
The third and fourth lines have also taken a hit. Production from those units is down by nearly half a goal per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
That drop turns Edmonton from a high-octane offensive machine into a team that’s just … average. And for a team built around elite top-end talent, that’s a problem.
When the stars aren't clicking together and the depth isn’t scoring, the margin for error disappears. That’s the corner the Oilers are skating into as we approach the Olympic break.
Deadline Decisions and the Youth Movement That Wasn’t
All signs point to Edmonton making a move at the deadline - likely a pricey one - to add a scoring winger for the top six. But here’s the thing: they may already have one in the system.
Rookie winger Ike Howard has been lighting up the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors. He’s got 12 goals and 30 points in just 22 games, with most of that production coming at even strength. His line is driving play, and his goal differential (31-17 at even strength) suggests he’s making strides on the defensive side - the very area the organization wanted him to improve.
Yet, despite this surge, Howard has been yo-yoed between the NHL and AHL. He started the season in Edmonton, was sent down, recalled, and sent down again. The Oilers have been hesitant to give him a real shot in a top-six role - or even consistent minutes - at the NHL level.
Skill Loves Skill
Howard’s limited NHL minutes this season haven’t been eye-popping - but they’ve been telling. In just 29 five-on-five minutes with McDavid, he was on the ice for a goal.
In only 10 minutes with Draisaitl, he added a goal and an assist. Small sample, sure.
But it underscores a simple truth: skill players thrive with other skill players.
When Howard’s been paired with high-end talent, he’s produced. His goal differential with Draisaitl was 2-0.
With McDavid, 2-3. These aren’t dominant numbers, but they’re promising - especially considering how little time he’s had to build chemistry with either.
Most of his NHL minutes came alongside Jack Roslovic, where the line broke even in goals (4-4) and posted solid underlying numbers.
The argument that rookies can’t hang with the Oilers’ stars doesn’t hold up historically, either. Drake Caggiula, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Kailer Yamamoto all found success as rookies when given a shot on the top lines. Howard has barely cracked 40 minutes with McDavid, Draisaitl, or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins combined.
AHL Dominance, NHL Patience
Howard’s numbers in the AHL aren’t just good - they’re among the best for rookies league-wide. He’s driving offense, playing a responsible two-way game, and checking every box the organization laid out for him. The question now isn’t whether he’s ready - it’s whether the Oilers are willing to give him the chance.
Edmonton has a history of slow-playing prospects. Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are recent examples, both of whom were eventually tendered offer sheets after being buried in the depth chart.
Matt Savoie had to wait his turn in the AHL before finally cracking the NHL lineup this year. Howard seems to be on the same track.
And that’s fine - if the team is winning.
But the Oilers aren’t. They’ve spent the first half of the season trying to suppress offense with veteran-heavy lineups and a conservative approach.
It’s not working. The offense needs a jolt, and Howard is sitting right there, waiting for the call.
The Bigger Picture
If Edmonton trades for another winger at the deadline and blocks Howard again, it’ll be another instance of the front office and coaching staff not seeing eye-to-eye. General manager Stan Bowman made a bet last summer on Howard, Andrew Mangiapane, and Trent Frederic as potential skill-line options. So far, none have found a consistent role.
Meanwhile, players like Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson have also been cycled through the lineup and discarded. The coaching staff has been quick to move on from anyone who doesn’t fit their mold - even when the offense sputters.
Howard stands apart from that group for one reason: he hasn’t been given a real shot yet. His AHL numbers suggest he can help.
His brief NHL stints with elite linemates suggest he can keep up. And with the Oilers looking to push for a deep playoff run, the upside is too high to ignore.
Time to Roll the Dice
The Oilers are likely to move their 2027 first-round pick at the deadline. That tells you everything you need to know about the urgency in Edmonton right now. But before they mortgage more of the future, maybe it’s time to see what they already have.
Howard can’t score goals from Bakersfield. And if the Oilers are serious about contending, they need to find out - now - if he can be part of the solution.
Because if they don’t, and he walks the same path as Broberg and Holloway, the trade that sent gritty two-way center Sam O’Reilly to Tampa Bay in exchange for Howard will start to look like a missed opportunity. One the Oilers can’t afford to keep repeating.