When Paul Coffey joined the Edmonton Oilers, there were immediate questions about his impact on their defense. While it's clear the team has made strides in goal suppression and five-on-five play, assessing Coffey's contribution requires a bit of patience and perspective.
The Oilers are aiming for a 94-point finish, which could potentially secure them the top spot in the Pacific Division. However, if the Anaheim Ducks clinch first place, both the Oilers and the Golden Knights might feel a tinge of disappointment. While winning the division isn't the ultimate goal, it highlights areas where the Oilers need to improve, particularly in consistency.
Before Coffey's arrival, the Oilers were allowing 2.78 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, with a 47% goal share. Their shots against per 60 (SA-60) were at 29.60, and high-danger chances against per 60 (HDCA-60) were at 13.09. The expected goals against per 60 (GA-60) was 2.72, with an expected goal share of 52%.
Post-Coffey, the GA-60 has slightly increased to 2.91, but the goal share has improved to 51%, with an expected goal share of 53%. The real success story lies in the SA-60 dropping to 24.86 and the HDCA-60 to 9.45, showing significant improvement in shot and high-danger chance suppression.
If we mark the start of Coffey's influence from March 1, the GA-60 improved to 2.69, with the goal share rising to 49%. This improvement is driven by an impressive 24.69 SA-60 and 9.62 HDSCA-60.
The Oilers have managed to reduce almost five shots against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which is substantial. The reduction in high-danger scoring chances by 3.5 per 60 is also noteworthy.
While the goals against and goal share could be better, recent improvements in goaltending have been a positive sign.
Coffey's influence is apparent, though he's likely not the sole reason for these improvements. Other factors, such as contributions from players like Connor Murphy and improved health for Jake Walman, have played a role. The Oilers have been more effective in using the middle of the ice, with forwards creating better passing lanes and tracking back more diligently.
It's interesting to reflect on the discussions surrounding Coffey's exit last summer. Some believed his defensive strategies were a factor in the Florida Panthers' success. However, the changes since then suggest a more complex picture.
As the Oilers prepare to face the Blackhawks, lineup changes are on the horizon with Trent Frederic's return. Expect discussions on players like Josh Samanski, as the team continues to evolve. Tune in to Sports 1440 and YouTube from noon to 2pm for more insights.