With training camp about to sort things out, the Oilers don’t have a full-blown camp chaos on their hands. Most of the opening night picture is already taking shape. Still, there are a few real jobs on the line, and a handful of players who can change the conversation fast.
The biggest opening is up front, where Matt Savoie’s injury has created a vacancy in the top six to start the year. That leaves Edmonton looking for a winger to skate with Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin, and two names stand out immediately.
Kasperi Kapanen looks like the front-runner.
The 30-year-old has never really settled in as a permanent top-six forward, but the fit with Draisaitl and Podkolzin has been hard to ignore. That group gave Edmonton one of its few bright spots in the first-round loss to Anaheim, and Kapanen chipped in four goals and six points.
Over the last two seasons, the trio has logged 315 minutes together at five-on-five, holding a 22-6 edge in goals while controlling 57 percent of the expected goals. That goal total probably won’t hold forever, but the underlying numbers say the line wasn’t riding pure luck.
Isaac Howard is the other name worth watching.
He tore through the AHL with 24 goals and 50 points in 47 games last season, which doesn’t leave much left to prove at that level. The real question is whether that production can carry over to the NHL after he put up five points in 29 games as a rookie with the Oilers.
Howard is the organization’s most gifted prospect, and his offensive skill set should fit nicely with one of the league’s elite passers. With Savoie out, he’s getting a real chance to show he’s ready.
The bottom six is where the rest of the forward puzzle gets interesting.
Jason Dickinson looks set as the third-line centre, and Trent Frederic plus Colton Dach should be in good position for two more spots somewhere down the lineup. If the loser of the Kapanen-Howard battle drops onto Dickinson’s wing, that still leaves two openings.
Josh Samanski has a strong case because he can play centre. He looked comfortable in his first NHL action last season and posted strong defensive numbers in the 24 regular-season games he played. He seems like the best bet to open as the fourth-line centre, with a chance to contribute on the penalty kill.
Mathieu Joseph also makes sense as a bottom-six option after signing a one-year deal this offseason. He’s played 471 NHL games, brings speed and some edge, and has proven useful on the penalty kill. His recent offensive numbers have been underwhelming, but he’s only two years removed from a 35-point season.
Quinn Hutson is another candidate trying to force his way in. At 24, this is his shot to show that his AHL production can translate to the NHL. The question is whether his game can hold up in a bottom-six role, where size and skating concerns could work against him.
Viljami Marjala is more of a long shot, but he’s not just a name to file away. He put up 60 points in 72 games as an AHL rookie and even saw penalty-kill time in Bakersfield. Still, he looks like the longest shot of the group to jump straight to the NHL.
Max Jones belongs in the mix too. His size and physical play give him a different look than most of the other candidates, and after re-signing with Edmonton this summer, he should get a real crack at a fourth-line job.
On defence, the top four is basically set, and Ryan Shea being signed long-term leaves one final spot up for grabs.
Ty Emberson enters camp as the favorite. His underlying numbers as Edmonton’s sixth defenceman were solid last season, and he fits best in a sheltered role.
Among NHL defencemen with 1000-plus minutes, Emberson ranked 15th in expected goals against per 60 minutes last season. He won’t bring much offense, but for a shutdown third-pairing job, that’s exactly the kind of profile teams want.
Shakir Mukhamadullin looks like his toughest challenger. The 2020 first-round pick was the main piece coming back for Darnell Nurse, and last season with San Jose he had 12 points, 63 blocked shots, and 35 hits in 50 games. At 6-foot-4, he adds size, reach, and penalty-killing value, and his ability to play the right side despite being a left shot gives Edmonton some flexibility.
Spencer Stastney is also in the fight. He’s the best skater and puck-mover of the three, but he also has the most to prove after arriving from Nashville in December and seeing his numbers fall across the board before he was eventually out of the lineup late in the season.
Because he’s not waiver-exempt, the Oilers have some decisions to make if he doesn’t win the job. They could keep him as an extra, try to move him, or risk losing him on waivers if they send him to Bakersfield.
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