The Oilers’ lineup has a few spots that look settled, but the middle and bottom of the roster still feel very much in motion.
At the top, Mike Babcock appears to have the McDavid line, the Nuge line, Jason Dickinson up front, the Bouchard pairing, Ryan Shea on defense and the goaltending in a workable place most nights. But the rest of the forward group is still searching for answers, and the numbers on a couple of those combinations are not flattering.
Ryan Shea’s pairing with Connor Murphy has managed just a 36 percent five-on-five goal share in 231 minutes, while Jake Walman’s role has produced a 3-11 five-on-five goals mark in 132 minutes. The third- and fourth-line wingers have not given Babcock much to grab onto either, and Owen Michaels, despite being viewed as a fine talent, is regressing as an NHL pro in his first season.
That leaves Babcock in the part of the season where the roster gets sorted out, and some shuffling feels inevitable.
There’s also a bigger-picture opportunity sitting in front of Edmonton. A 3-0 run here would put the Oilers at 14-3-3 after 20 games, good for 31 points and enough to separate them from most of the division. It’s not a wild idea, either, given that the combined record of the Canucks, Rangers and Flyers is 16-31-6.
The two bottom lines are where the concern really lives. The Jason Dickinson line includes Alex Formenton, who has not fully re-established himself in the NHL after three seasons in Switzerland.
Formenton-Dickinson-Joseph have gone 1-0 in five-on-five goals over 38 minutes, but their 32 percent expected goal share is a warning sign. Their expected goals against rate sits at 1.62 per 60, so there’s at least a chance the group trends upward, but the sample is small and the underlying results are shaky.
Michaels’ line has been on the ice for 185 five-on-five minutes and has been outscored 5-11, a 31 percent goal share, with a 29 percent expected share. The expected goals against number there is 2.93 per 60, which suggests he has been a bit unlucky compared with the actual 3.57 goals against per 60.
Even so, the expectation is that he could be headed to the Bakersfield Condors in the next few weeks. If that happens, Josh Samanski is a possible replacement at No.
4C after scoring last night.
Max Jones is the other name that hangs over the bottom-six picture. If he’s clearly the better player in any category, it may be time to push harder for a solution. Dickinson deserves credit for the defensive work and suppression he’s bringing, but he needs better linemates soon.
Down in Bakersfield, the picture is more encouraging in spots. Samuel Jonsson was slowed early in the season, but the Oilers’ best goalie prospect has now put together two strong seasons in a row, and he was excellent last night in a win on the coast. He looks like someone who should stay in Bakersfield as long as he keeps performing at that level.
Damien Carfagna was expected to be the next recall, but he has missed the past two games. On defense, Tomas Cibulka has been the best player there by the numbers, with a 6-3 even-strength goal edge and strong offensive production on both special teams.
Josh Brown is also having a good year and could be a recall option if the right side gets hit. John Gormley, an ECHL recall, made an immediate impact.
Up front, Aku Raty has been producing for a team that badly needs offense, though he doesn’t look like a likely NHL recall option. Quinn Hutson has brought offense too, but most of it has come on the power play, where he won’t get that same chance in Edmonton. Samanski, after scoring and looking good last night, is another name worth watching if the Oilers keep reshaping the bottom of the lineup.
In Other News...
Oilers Get The Win They Needed But One Concern Just Grew
The Oilers got the kind of result they needed with a 4-2 win over Vancouver, and they did it with a few familiar pieces back in the mix. Connor McDavid kept his run rolling with another multi-point night, extending both his point and assist streak while helping set up goals for Mattias Ekholm and Leon Draisaitl. Devon Levi was back in net and gave Edmonton a solid enough return, turning aside 20 of 22 shots, while Zach Hyman also rejoined the lineup and chipped in an assist.
Even with the victory, the game carried a little more edge than the final score suggested. Edmontons offense looked sharp enough to keep control, but the night ended with one of the clubs regular contributors unavailable for the third period after taking a puck to the face, a reminder that the lineup remains a moving target even when the standings points come through. For a team trying to build momentum, the win mattered, but so did the concern that came with it. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Make A Blue Line Move That Puts Depth In Focus
The Oilers made a blue-line move that underscores how much roster depth matters early in the season, placing defenceman Atro Leppnen on waivers. Leppnen, who signed a one-year contract extension over the summer, has not yet appeared this season while working back from injury, leaving Edmonton to sort out where he fits once he is healthy enough to return.
If he clears waivers, Leppnen would head to the AHLs Bakersfield Condors, a familiar next step for a player trying to get his game back on track. For the Oilers, the decision keeps the focus on managing depth on defence while waiting to see how the rest of the roster settles in around him. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Suddenly Have A Goalie Decision As Help Arrives Up Front
The Oilers got a timely lift on both ends of the roster heading into their game against Vancouver, with Devon Levi and Zach Hyman coming off injured reserve. Levi, who was acquired in the offseason and had been handling the crease before his injury, gives Edmonton another option in goal, while Hymans return from a neck injury adds a needed jolt up front after he missed several games.
The roster shuffle to make room for those moves sent Matt Tomkins down to the AHLs Bakersfield Condors, and it leaves Edmonton with a fresh decision in net as the lineup gets healthier. Hymans presence should help the Oilers forward group, but the bigger immediate question is how the team chooses to manage the crease now that Levi is back in the mix. [Read more 🡒]