Nugent-Hopkins Return Creates A Big Oilers Top-Six Decision

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' return offers the Edmonton Oilers a boost in center depth, shake-ups in the lineup, and potential for greater offensive balance.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is about to change the look of the Edmonton Oilers again, and the timing matters.

Head coach Mike Babcock said after Tuesday’s 4-3 OT win over the Minnesota Wild that Nugent-Hopkins will make his season debut against the Carolina Hurricanes this week. The veteran forward has sat out the first nine games with an undisclosed injury, but his return should push him right back into the mix in the top six.

Edmonton has held up well without him, racing to a 7-1-1 start. Even so, the Oilers have leaned heavily on one scorching top line, and the centre depth has been tested with Jason Dickinson dealing with injuries and Babcock preferring to keep Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together.

That makes Nugent-Hopkins’ return more than just a welcome roster note. It opens the door to a reshuffle that could give Edmonton a deeper, more balanced forward group.

The cleanest move is the easiest one to see: leave the first line alone.

Vasily Podkolzin, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been one of the league’s best combinations to start the season, and there’s no reason to break up what’s already driving so much of Edmonton’s early success. McDavid is on pace for the greatest regular season in NHL history, Draisaitl is near the top of the goals race, and Podkolzin has emerged as the league’s biggest breakout player so far.

That trio has earned the right to stay intact.

The real decision comes behind it. Nugent-Hopkins looks like the natural fit as the second-line centre, with Zach Hyman on the right side. The question is who fills out that unit.

Kasperi Kapanen has apparently earned the staff’s trust and could be a candidate. But there’s also a case for giving Isaac Howard a longer look there, even though his start has been quiet.

Howard has only two assists in nine games, yet his tools are still obvious: a heavy shot and a feel for finding open ice. The problem has been usage, since most nights he’s been parked on the fourth line.

Put him with more dangerous linemates, and there’s a chance the offence wakes up. In that setup, he could serve as the trigger-man for the line and finally get a chance to play in a spot that fits what he does best.

Babcock had this combination in training camp, but never got to try it in the regular season. This might be the best chance to test it.

The third line, meanwhile, could end up looking like a hard-nosed, reliable group with Trent Frederic, Colton Dach and Kasperi Kapanen.

Edmonton has been trying Dach at second-line centre lately, but Nugent-Hopkins’ return would likely bump him down to 3C for now, at least until Dickinson is available again. Dach would bring the physical edge, Frederic would add more of the same on the left side, and Kapanen could supply some pace after skating with Dach in the last couple of games.

That trio would tilt toward the classic shutdown third-line mold, though there’d still be some offensive upside there. The numbers haven’t been kind to that group, but injuries pushed them into a bigger role than expected early on, and a move down the lineup could help them settle in.

As for the fourth line, Babcock doesn’t seem inclined to mess with it.

Alex Formenton, Owen Michaels and Mathieu Joseph have spent most of the season together, and the fit makes sense. Michaels has been strong on faceoffs, Formenton brings speed, and Joseph has been a useful all-around piece. They’ve also chipped in offensively at times, which has not always been the case for Edmonton’s fourth line in the past.

That unit has had its defensive moments, too, and it has done enough to hold its own.

So while Nugent-Hopkins’ return should make the Oilers look different, not every line needs a shakeup. The top line stays put, the second line gets the spotlight, and the rest of the group gets a chance to settle into roles that make more sense.

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With Ryan Nugent-Hopkins nearing a return, the bigger question for Edmonton is how the lines will look once another proven piece is back in the mix. Any adjustment could ripple through the rest of the forward group and change how the Oilers handle their next stretch of games, which is why this isnt just about one lineup card but about whether the team can find the right balance before the schedule tightens again. [Read more 🡒]