This is the time of year when the reasonable-expectations exercise starts to take shape, and for the Oilers, the picture gets trickier with Mike Babcock taking over behind the bench for the first time. The big question is how he handles the top six - especially whether Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl stay on separate lines or get reunited.
The case for splitting them is pretty simple: two scoring lines create a lot more room to work. Looking at points per 60 at five-on-five after January 1, the most likely skill forwards are Leon Draisaitl (2.91), Connor McDavid (2.49), Matt Savoie (2.23), Kasperi Kapanen (1.8), Vasily Podkolzin (1.79) and Zach Hyman (1.74).
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.11) and Ike Howard (0.92) are left out of that group, though both still figure to get a long look in training camp, the preseason and the first 20 games of 2026-27. Nugent-Hopkins matters here because he is the obvious No. 2 center if McDavid and Draisaitl are kept apart.
Last season, though, he had a 37 percent goal share away from 97 and 29, with 46 expected, and that number rose to 48 percent in the second half, with 48 expected. So the possibility is there.
Still, the most likely setup keeps Nugent-Hopkins out of that 2C spot. If he does win it, Babcock would need to surround him with wingers who can finish.
Kris Knoblauch used Hyman and Jack Roslovic with Nugent-Hopkins for just under one hour last season, and the group outscored opponents 4-1 (!!!), but the expected share sat in the low 40s. That doesn’t look like a clean fit.
For this exercise, 97 and 29 are on separate lines because they have to be.
With that in mind, the rest of the roster starts to fall into place. The centers are McDavid, Draisaitl, Jason Dickinson and Josh Samanski, with Nugent-Hopkins sliding to No. 3 center when the team wants more offense.
On the left side, the group is Matt Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin, Nugent-Hopkins, Colton Dach and Mattias Janmark until he’s moved or sent down. On the right are Zach Hyman, Ike Howard, Kasperi Kapanen, Trent Frederic and Mathieu Joseph.
For recalls, the choices are Owen Michaels, Eduards Tralmaks, Connor Clattenburg, Max Jones and Quinn Hutson.
That leaves a lineup built around two dangerous scoring units, a third line that can handle checking duties and a fourth line that can still cause problems. The look here is Savoie-McDavid-Hyman, Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Howard/Kapanen, Nuge-Dickinson-Joseph and Dach-Samanski-Frederic.
If Babcock wants three lines that can attack, or if he wants 97 and 29 together, Stan Bowman will have to find him another center.
In Other News...
Oilers Forward Sends A Clear Message About The Babcock Era
Vasily Podkolzin did not sound rattled by the reputation that follows Mike Babcock into Edmonton. In a translated interview, the Oilers forward said he is not worried about the new coach being hard on depth players, and he framed the move as part of a needed reset after a disappointing playoff exit. Podkolzin also described Babcock as a legend of world hockey, a notable endorsement from a player trying to carve out a bigger role.
Podkolzins comments carried a more personal edge when he turned to Kris Knoblauch, the coach he is now leaving behind. He acknowledged the change brings mixed feelings and said he is grateful for what Knoblauch did for him, which is the kind of detail that often gets lost when a team makes a coaching switch. For Edmonton, the message is clear enough: the room may be bracing for a different tone, even if the full shape of that change is still coming into focus. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Still Need One More Scorer Before This Window Gets Risky
The Oilers still have a little room to work with this summer, and the search for one more scorer has become the obvious place to spend it. Edmonton is sitting on about $5.9 million in projected cap space with only one restricted free agent left to sign, which leaves enough flexibility to chase a forward who can deepen the lineup without forcing a major roster shuffle.
Patrick Kane, Eeli Tolvanen, Vladimir Tarasenko, James Van Riemsdyk and Michael Bunting are among the names being floated as possible fits, each bringing a different kind of offensive profile. Kane appears unlikely to be headed back to Detroit after three seasons there, while Tolvanens recent production and Tarasenkos track record give Edmonton a couple of different ways to add punch, but the longer the market drags on, the more this starts to feel like a decision the Oilers cant afford to get wrong. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Nearly Missed The Goalie Upgrade They Desperately Needed
Frederik Andersens arrival in Edmonton already gives the Oilers a very different look in net, and it comes at a time when the organization was clearly searching for stability. The veteran goalie signed a one-year deal and joins a projected three-goalie mix that also includes Devon Levi and Tristan Jarry, giving the club a deeper, more crowded picture than it has had in recent seasons.
Andersen also brings fresh credibility after a strong playoff run that helped his previous team win the Stanley Cup, which is exactly the kind of resume Edmonton needed to consider. What makes the move even more interesting is how close the Oilers may have come to missing out entirely, with the path to Andersen changing late in the process before he landed in Edmonton. [Read more 🡒]