Connor McDavid is flying, the Oilers are winning, and the early returns around Edmonton have the kind of shine that makes people start eyeing bigger things. After six games, McDavid’s boxcars sit at 4-13-17, and the Oilers have opened the month 5-0-1. The question now is how long they can keep it rolling.
The foundation remains familiar. Todd McLellan’s model once centered on McDavid and Leon Draisaitl carrying the load while Cam Talbot tried to stop everything, and that formula was good enough to get the Oilers into the playoffs in 2017. Mike Babcock has that same McDavid-Draisaitl core in place, while Devon Levi has been offering a strong stand-in for Talbot from 2016-17.
Babcock’s problem is depth, or more specifically the lack of it. He also has Evan Bouchard, Vasily Podkolzin and three key injuries hanging over the roster in Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Matt Savoie.
More is needed. Pretty sure.
At the top, the McDavid-Draisaitl group has been outrageous. The line was only at 36 percent by the Corgis and lost the HDSC battle, but the two stars and their Russian teammate are still driving play over 200 feet.
Through 66 five-on-five minutes, that trio is at 10-1 in goals and 8.99 Goals-60. That is generational stuff.
That is historic.
There were also moments where McDavid took a hit to the body, including a shot from Drew Doughty last night when he got driven into the boards. That’s the sort of wear and tear that comes with the territory, and it leaves Babcock with a familiar balancing act.
The rest of the forward group wasn’t nearly as sharp. These lines were not competitive last night, and that matters even if the scoreboard makes it easy to shrug off.
It is true that score effects can muddy the picture, but Trent Frederic was the only five-on-five high-danger chance for that group. The Kings are not exactly a shutdown machine, so there is work to do, and Hyman can’t get back into the lineup fast enough.
There’s also a need to stay grounded about what the lower lines are really doing. The Formenton-Michaels-Joseph line owns a 50 percent goal share at five-on-five, but its expected share sits at 28 percent, which is the kind of gap that usually gets punished hard by regression. Michaels has looked good, but this still doesn’t resemble the right-handed center a championship team is after, at least not yet.
The Samanski line has only played 21 minutes together and has posted a 67 percent goal share, but its expected number is just 40 percent. That makes it hard to believe this arrangement can hold without help, and there’s a sense that Josh Samanski could be in Bakersfield soon. One way or another, McDavid-Nuge-Dickinson-Michaels is going to need support.
Bouchard, though, is giving the Oilers exactly what they need from the blue line. He’s up to 6-8-14 in six games and the numbers match the production.
With McDavid, Bouchard has a staggering 86 percent five-on-five goal share, with the Oilers up 12-2 in goals. Without McDavid, he’s still 3-0 in goals.
That’s a stunning offensive surge from a player who was already elite.
Levi has also earned his own spotlight. He made a string of excellent saves last night, going 8-for-8 on HDSC, and the case for heavier usage is starting to build.
If he keeps this up, 30-plus starts this season doesn’t sound far-fetched. He’s now 4-0-0 in four starts with a .903 SP and a 2.76 GAA.
Still, the bigger issue may be what Edmonton can do when the chances aren’t there in bunches. Babcock needs a team that can cash in when an opponent is giving up eight HDSC shots.
Last night, the Oilers had four all told. That isn’t enough.
So the streak, at least for now, is alive - but the schedule is about to get harder, and that matters. Edmonton has been hammering weaker competition, and the next stretch should be a much better test. A few regression losses are probably coming, because the quality of the opponents is about to rise.
Even so, the month still lines up favorably in the broader projection. The pre-season forecast had the Oilers at 4-1-1 through their first six, and they’re sitting at 5-0-1 instead.
The rest of the month was projected at 5-2-1, and a 9-3-2 mark through 14 games would be good enough to lead the division. That said, this is not being framed as a complete team yet.
There was also a separate reminder that not every early projection has been perfect. The injuries to McDavid and the poor start that cost Woodcroft his job pushed the numbers into rough territory, though the overall call has still been mostly solid.
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy is set to join the show to talk about the road trip, the Mammoth to come and the Friday Elks game that could put the city football club in first place as a division winner. The show runs noon to 2 p.m. on Sports 1440 and YouTube.
In Other News...
Oilers May Have Pulled Off Two Steals And One Looks Even Bigger
The early returns on Edmontons recent trade work have been hard to ignore, especially with Vasily Podkolzin giving the forward group a burst the Oilers could use. He has scored seven goals in six games and already looks like the kind of addition that can push deeper into the lineup over time, not just fill a spot in the middle six. For a team that has opened the season with a strong record, those kinds of quick returns can make a front office look awfully sharp.
Devon Levi has added a different kind of value in goal, staying undefeated and turning in impressive numbers in his recent starts. His arrival gave Edmonton another option in a position where stability always matters, and the fact that both moves are paying off at once has only raised the profile of the deals. One looks like a timely boost, the other may be starting to feel like a bigger swing altogether, which is exactly the sort of outcome the Oilers were hoping for. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Keep Winning But This Latest Escape Raises A Real Debate
The Oilers kept their unbeaten run rolling with a 4-1 win over the Kings, moving to 5-0-1 and remaining the NHLs only team without a regulation loss. Leon Draisaitl helped drive the offense, Vasily Podkolzin scored twice, and Connor McDavid piled up four assists in his 800th game, another reminder that Edmonton can still tilt a night its way even when the shot totals say otherwise.
Devon Levi may have been the biggest reason it all held together. He turned aside 39 of 40 shots while Edmonton spent long stretches defending rather than dictating, which only sharpened the conversation around how sustainable this start really is. The wins are piling up, but the formula has looked different enough each night that the Oilers early-season success now comes with a lingering question about what happens when the margin for error finally shrinks. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Face A Goaltending Decision That Could Define Their Season
Early in the season, the Oilers are already staring at a familiar but urgent problem in net, with Tristan Jarry, Frederik Andersen and Devon Levi all under scrutiny as the club tries to steady the position. It is the kind of issue that can quietly shape everything around it, from the way Edmonton manages its games to how much pressure lands on the skaters in front of the crease.
The market for a fix looks complicated. Connor Hellebuyck, Sam Montembeault, Jordan Binnington and Adin Hill all surface as possible answers, but each comes with real obstacles tied to contract status, performance concerns or the sheer difficulty of prying a goalie loose. For now, Edmonton may be left weighing whether the cleanest move is no move at all, and simply hoping one of its current options settles in before the season gets away from it. [Read more 🡒]