The Edmonton Oilers are facing a challenging situation with Trent Frederic sidelined for an unknown duration. Earlier this season, his absence might not have raised eyebrows, given his initial struggles and the team's performance with him on the ice. However, since the Olympic break, Frederic has turned into a valuable asset for the Oilers' bottom six.
While losing Frederic isn't as catastrophic as losing a star like Leon Draisaitl, it's still a significant setback. His slow start could be linked to the lingering effects of last season's high-ankle sprain, reminiscent of Connor Brown's struggles in the 2023-24 season.
Since the Oilers resumed play against the Anaheim Ducks on Feb. 25, Frederic has notched two goals and three points in 12 games.
While those numbers might seem modest, they represent half of his season totals achieved in the prior 55 games. Let's dive into his performance during five-on-five play, using insights from Natural Stat Trick.
Frederic's first three months were rough. In October, the Oilers managed just 45.67% of the expected goal share with him on the ice. November marked his lowest point, with the Oilers capturing only 42.12% of the expected goals and conceding almost twice the high-danger chances they created.
December saw a slight improvement, with the Oilers holding 46.72% of the expected goal share. Although they were still outscored during five-on-five play, they generated more high-danger chances (24) than they allowed (21), signaling a potential turnaround for Frederic.
January was a turning point. Frederic spent significant time with Mattias Janmark and Curtis Lazar, and together they commanded 54.42% of the expected goals, outshooting and out-chancing opponents. Away from this duo, Frederic's impact was even more pronounced, with the Oilers owning 58.92% of the expected goals and 64.29% of high-danger opportunities.
Overall, in January, Frederic achieved 50.86% of the expected goals on the ice, outshooting opponents 55 to 44, and generating 29 high-danger chances while conceding just 26.
Combining February and March due to the Olympic break, Frederic has excelled since NHL play resumed. The Oilers have a 59.88% expected goal share with him on the ice, second only to Mattias Ekholm. Impressively, Frederic's numbers surpass those of stars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, albeit against easier opposition and with less ice time.
Despite the solid underlying stats, the goals haven't followed, with the Oilers being outscored seven to four when Frederic is on the ice. Yet, Edmonton is outshooting opponents 66-54 and has generated 35 high-danger chances while allowing just 19, translating to 64.81% of the high-danger opportunities.
Among 549 players with 100 or more minutes since February, Frederic ranks 43rd in expected goal share and 19th in high-danger scoring share.
One intriguing stat is his actual goal share of 36.36, influenced by a PDO of 0.931, indicating some bad luck. This is due to a low team shooting percentage (6.06%) and a save percentage of .870 when he's on the ice, making him the 35th unluckiest player in the league.
While it's too soon to declare Frederic's eight-year contract a success, especially given his injury history, his recent performance suggests he's becoming the player the Oilers hoped for before the 2025 trade deadline. His absence is a blow to a bottom six that's already had its share of misfortune this season.