Connor Murphy has become one of the more debated pieces on an Edmonton Oilers team that keeps winning anyway.
At 13-3-3, the Oilers have the kind of record that usually quiets the noise. Instead, Murphy has drawn plenty of it. In recent pieces for The Athletic, Allan Mitchell, Sean Gentille, and Dom Luszczyszyn took aim at the veteran blueliner, with the argument centering on whether he needs to raise his game or whether Edmonton needs a better answer on its second pair.
One of Mitchell’s points was that Stan Bowman may already be hunting for a move that would push Murphy down to the third pair. Another article from The Athletic went straight at the numbers, highlighting Murphy’s 35 percent expected goals rate and describing him as a “complete black hole offensively.”
That’s a brutal line, but the underlying issue is simple enough: when Murphy is on the ice, the Oilers are generating only about a third of the quality chances. On its face, that looks bad. But the bigger picture around him is messy.
Edmonton’s forward group is split between elite and thin. Any line featuring Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl is going to tilt the ice, and Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm are getting most of those favorable minutes. That leaves Murphy and partner Ryan Shea with what’s left, and what’s left has not done much to help.
That’s where the contradiction comes in. Murphy’s goals-against numbers are holding up, but the expected-goals numbers are ugly.
That can point to strong goaltending or plain old luck masking a pair that is getting outchanced. It can also mean Murphy is being asked to do too much with too little around him.
The sample size is still too small to lock in one answer.
So the question hangs there: is the problem the second line not supplying enough offense? Is it Jake Walman, who was supposed to be a difference-maker on that second pairing and hasn’t been? Or is it Murphy himself, slowing down and no longer looking like the right fit in the top four?
Edmonton does have ways to adjust. Ty Emberson or Shakir Mukhamadullin could be promoted from below.
Bowman could also go get an upgrade and move Murphy to the third pair, where a more defensive role might suit him better. The good news for the Oilers is that none of this requires panic, not with their place in the standings.
Mitchell thinks the picture could get clearer once Matt Savoie returns. His view is that a stronger top-six supporting cast would make it easier to tell whether Murphy’s numbers are being dragged down by his linemates or whether there’s a real issue underneath.
There’s also the warning sign from Edmonton’s recent games. Against the New York Rangers and the Philadelphia Flyers, the Oilers were outchanced and outplayed.
Their goaltending kept them afloat, with Tristan Jarry saving the day against the Flyers. If that pattern continues and the wins don’t, the Oilers may have no choice but to dig deeper into where the goals are actually coming from and why the depth offense isn’t showing up.
For now, Murphy looks like what he probably is: a depth defenceman being asked to survive on a second pair without much offensive support. Maybe he’s not a black hole.
He also doesn’t look like the answer. The real issue for Edmonton is whether they can afford to wait and find out.
In Other News...
Oilers Trade Buzz Suddenly Centers On One Believable Star Target
The Oilers have not made any recent trades, but the conversation around their next move is starting to sharpen. If Edmonton decides to add, the focus would be on either a top-six forward or a top-four defenseman, which is exactly the kind of upgrade that can matter most when a contender is trying to squeeze a little more out of its roster.
Among the names being weighed, Quinn Hughes looks like a long shot and Elias Pettersson comes with obvious contract questions, leaving the discussion to drift toward a different established star. Roman Josi stands out as the cleanest fit for Edmontons needs and the most believable of the options, even if there is still plenty standing between speculation and an actual deal. [Read more 🡒]
Babcocks Return To Toronto Adds Extra Heat For The Oilers
Mike Babcocks return to Toronto gives this Oilers road trip a little extra edge, even beyond the standings and the usual late-season noise. Now behind Edmontons bench, the former Maple Leafs coach is back in the building where he spent a memorable stretch with one of hockeys biggest franchises, and he spent time reflecting on both the good and the difficult parts of that run while also taking stock of his current group, which sits atop the Pacific Division.
For the Oilers, the setting adds another layer to a meeting that already matters, with Toronto trying to steady itself under new coach Jim Hiller while the Leafs continue to search for traction in the Atlantic Division. Babcocks presence turns the matchup into more than just another cross-conference game, because the conversation around it is as much about history and unfinished business as it is about the points on the line. [Read more 🡒]
Oilers Suddenly Have A Line Decision That Could Matter A Lot
Zach Hymans two-goal night in Edmonton came with a wrinkle that could end up mattering well beyond one home win. He was skating on a new look line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Colton Dach, and the early results only added to the sense that the Oilers may have stumbled onto a combination worth keeping in mind as they sort through their forward groups.
The bigger issue is how the rest of the lineup settles around it. Edmonton has leaned heavily on its top line, so any real balance has to come from the second and third units finding a better fit, and that is where the decisions start to get tricky. The Oilers have options, but the way they arrange those pieces could shape whether the offense feels top-heavy or finally a little more spread out. [Read more 🡒]