As the trade deadline loomed, Edmonton Oilers GM Stan Bowman made it clear that the team needed reinforcements at center. With stars like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins already in the lineup, it might seem like overkill. Yet, Oilers coaches have often stacked the top line with multiple centers, a strategy that’s been part of their playbook since McDavid's rookie season.
From Todd McLellan to Kris Knoblauch, pairing McDavid and Draisaitl at five-on-five has been a consistent tactic. Historically, it’s paid off handsomely.
Over the last few seasons, this dynamic duo scored at an impressive rate, essentially turning regular play into a power play for the Oilers. However, this season tells a different story.
In the previous three years, McDavid and Draisaitl combined for 1,343 minutes at five-on-five, scoring 4.51 goals per 60 minutes with a 62% goal share. This season, their output has dipped to 3.44 goals per 60, with a 53% goal share. While still solid, it’s a noticeable drop and raises the question: is it time to rethink the McDavid-Draisaitl combo?
Enter Jason Dickinson, acquired from the Blackhawks, who might just be the missing piece. With him in the mix, Nugent-Hopkins can slide to the second line when McDavid and Draisaitl are paired, providing depth the Oilers have lacked.
Breaking down the numbers, Draisaitl shines solo, boasting the best offensive and goal share stats. Yet, his expected goal share suggests a potential decline. McDavid, on the other hand, shows promise for improvement with an expected goal share of 55%.
Knoblauch’s strategy of alternating Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl on McDavid’s line has shown mixed results. Since January, the McDavid lines have maintained decent scoring rates, but the numbers suggest that splitting the two stars might be more effective. The higher-powered trio doesn’t necessarily result in a better goal share, and Draisaitl’s ability to drive the second line could be key.
Recent stats reveal a concerning 44% goal share for the top line in over 200 minutes of play. Adding Evan Bouchard to the mix bumps it to 47%, but that’s still troubling for a line featuring the world’s best player.
Goaltending has been a significant issue. With McDavid on the ice, the team’s save percentage is a mere .886.
Since January, it’s improved slightly to .893, but that’s still below par. The McDavid-Draisaitl tandem plays in front of an .861 save percentage, dropping to .846 since the new year.
In a recent matchup against the Colorado Avalanche, Connor Ingram started strong, but after a hit from Nathan MacKinnon, Tristan Jarry took over, helping secure the win. The Oilers’ two five-on-five goals came from the McDavid line (with Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman) and the Draisaitl line (with Jack Roslovic and Vasily Podkolzin).
The debate over whether to pair McDavid and Draisaitl or keep them separate continues. Both setups score over 50% of the time at five-on-five, and with average goaltending, those numbers could soar. Draisaitl’s solo performance remains stellar, regardless of his linemates.
The Oilers’ primary challenge remains in net. Ingram’s recent performances offer hope, but his availability is uncertain following the MacKinnon hit. If the goaltending stabilizes, the McDavid-Draisaitl duo can thrive, whether together or apart.
Knoblauch might be wise to keep McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines, using their combined firepower strategically. While the days of their five-on-five dominance might be waning, solo performances from both remain exceptional, and with improved goaltending, the Oilers could regain their edge.