Duke’s run to the ACC title last season gave the Blue Devils a real jolt heading into the offseason, especially after they closed with four straight wins and capped it by beating Arizona State 42-39 in the Sun Bowl. But the roster churn hit fast, and Josh Pate doesn’t see a repeat coming.
The biggest losses came through the transfer portal. Duke sent quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Cameron Bakrate to Miami, then turned to San Jose State transfer Walker Eget to replace Mensah. Pate didn’t dance around what that means for the offense.
“There’s no way to sugarcoat the change. Duke is downgrading at quarterback this season.”
That reality is why a fan’s bold prediction - that Duke would repeat as ACC champs behind an improved defense and a fantastic sophomore season from (running back) Nate Sheppard - got a 9.75 out of 10 from Pate, who said the path is just too steep.
“Duke repeats as ACC champs behind an improved defense and a fantastic sophomore season from (running back) Nate Sheppard," Pate said on his show Tuesday. "This is a nine point seven five.
I do not have Duke repeating as the ACC champion. Notice he said wins.
"They can't just make it. They've got to win it.
'Now you said Josh, they made it last year and they won it.' Yes, they made it last year, but they didn't play Miami.
They played Virginia."
Pate’s bigger point was that even if the ACC changes its tiebreaker setup, Duke’s road only gets tougher. In his view, the Blue Devils would likely have to go through Miami, and that’s before factoring in the losses on offense and the overall production drop.
“So if they fix the tiebreaker, you've got to assume they're going to have to go through Miami, which again, they didn't last year," Pate said. "So they lost their quarterback to Miami. They lost their best wide receiver to Miami.
"They only returned 42 receiving yards. If the tiebreaker is fixed, it makes the path harder and they're 77th in returning production this year.
No, Duke is not winning the ACC again. This is a rebuilding year for Manny Diaz.”
His bottom line was blunt: on paper, the teams ahead of Duke are simply stronger. “On paper, those four teams are way better than Duke.”
In Other News...
Dukes Post ACC Title Reality Is Setting Off A New Debate
The glow from Dukes ACC championship run has not faded, but the roster around it has changed quickly enough to make the next act feel a lot less certain. Losing Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate in the transfer portal took away two important pieces from last years surge, and it has pushed Manny Diaz into a reset of sorts as he looks for a new way to steady the offense heading into the next season.
Walker Eget is the latest answer at quarterback, and his arrival is part of the reason the conversation around Duke has shifted from celebration to expectation. CBS Sports analyst Brady Crawford has the Blue Devils at 6-6, which frames bowl eligibility as a realistic goal rather than a disappointment, but it also underscores how much harder it may be to repeat anything close to last years climb. [Read more 🡒]
John Blackwell Just Put Dukes Backcourt Into Focus
John Blackwells move to Duke gives Jon Scheyer another perimeter option at a time when the Blue Devils are still sorting out who will carry the offense on the outside. The Wisconsin transfer arrives with a proven scoring rsum, coming off a season in which he averaged 19.1 points and 5.1 rebounds while also sharpening his three-point shot, and that production is exactly the kind of backcourt punch Duke has been looking to add.
What makes the fit especially interesting is the role Blackwell is chasing. He spent much of his time at Wisconsin working off the ball, but Duke expects him to handle more of the creation load and compete for major on-ball duties. That gives the Blue Devils a more dynamic guard picture, even if the path to those responsibilities is not going to be handed out easily. [Read more 🡒]