Illinois took a small hit in ESPN’s Football Power Index after Week 1, but the Illini still enter their matchup with Duke as the favorite.
That’s not exactly a common setup for Illinois in FPI’s world. The metric has long tended to rate the Illini lower than the AP poll, the coaches poll and even the more chaotic corners of the college football internet. 2026 opened the same way: Illinois sat at No. 39 in the preseason FPI, while both major polls had the team in the “others receiving votes” range, even though the Illini landed inside the top 35 in each.
After one game, Illinois has slid to No. 45.
The reason is easy to spot in the box score from Week 1. Against a subpar UAB team, Illinois allowed 413 total yards, gave up 194 on the ground and finished with just 332 yards of its own.
Even with that dip, ESPN still gives Illinois a 61.4 percent chance to beat Duke and start 2026 at 2-0.
Duke also moved a bit in FPI after opening the season. The Blue Devils began at No. 52 and climbed to No. 50 after a 17-3 win over Tulane.
Illinois’ opener was a mixed bag. The offense flashed what looks like real high-end potential and, at minimum, a solid floor.
The defense, though, raised the opposite kind of concern. The Illini would probably settle for “just OK” on that side right now.
Duke’s profile is pretty clear. The run game, powered by Nate Sheppard, is the strength.
Passing and defense are the less convincing parts. That matters because stopping the run is shaping up as Illinois’ biggest issue.
If Illinois can crowd the box and make Walker Eget win through the air, the defense should be able to hold up enough for the offense to do its part against Duke’s defense.
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