Duke heads into the 2026-27 season as the clear ACC favorite, but the Blue Devils’ march toward a third straight league crown won’t come easy.
Jon Scheyer’s team has already stacked up back-to-back ACC regular-season and tournament titles, and a three-peat remains firmly on the checklist. Still, the conference has gotten stronger this offseason, and a few programs are shaping up as real threats to knock Duke off its perch.
Three teams stand out as the most serious challengers.
Louisville looks like the biggest obstacle. Pat Kelsey made major noise in the Transfer Portal, helping push the Cardinals into national contention after a 2025-26 season that ended with a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
ESPN has Louisville at No. 12 in its way-too-early Top 25, and the roster mix is loaded with turnover in a way that could pay off fast. Along with returning guard Adrian Wooley, the Cardinals are projected to start four transfers: Jackson Shelstad from Oregon, Karter Knox from Arkansas, Alvaro Folgueiras from Iowa, and Flory Bidunga from Kansas.
Bidunga was an early target for Duke in the portal, and it looked like a miss for the Blue Devils until Patrick Ngongba II chose to return to Durham for his junior season.
Virginia sits right behind Louisville in the pecking order. The Cavaliers finished as Duke’s runner-up last season and pushed the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament title game.
Ryan Odom wasted no time getting Virginia back into the mix, and the Cavs were a 3-seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament before Tennessee sent them out in the second round. ESPN slots Virginia at No. 13, and the biggest reason is retention.
All-ACC big man Thijs De Ridder is back to lead the way, and if UC Irvine transfer Jurian Dixon steadies the backcourt, Virginia should be right in the thick of the ACC race again.
Miami rounds out the list, and there’s plenty of reason to think Jai Lucas has something building in Coral Gables. The former Duke assistant led the Hurricanes to a 26-9 mark and a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament in his first year at the helm.
Miami beat Missouri to reach the second round before falling to Purdue. ESPN has the Hurricanes at No. 17 in its preseason rankings, and the portal work has been a big part of that buzz.
Lucas added Villanova guard Acaden Lewis and Georgia big man Somto Cyril, while also bringing in 5-star Caleb Gaskins and former 5-star Shelton Henderson. That kind of talent influx makes Miami a team Duke can’t afford to overlook.
There will be other ACC teams that push into the conversation, but these three have the clearest path to making Duke sweat next season.
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Duke Just Set Up One Of College Basketballs Toughest Tests
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The broader slate is shaping up as one of the more demanding ones in the country, with UConn, Illinois, Florida, Texas Tech and Gonzaga all on deck for 2026-27. Some of those games are tied to an Amazon broadcast package, and the new addition comes after a previously scheduled matchup with Michigan fell through amid media rights disputes, leaving Duke to reshuffle its lineup while still keeping the challenge level firmly intact. [Read more 🡒]