Duke enters fall camp with a different kind of pressure than it had a year ago. The Blue Devils are the reigning ACC champions, but the national buzz has cooled after Darian Mensah’s transfer to Miami, and the preseason numbers suggest there’s a real test ahead when they open against Tulane on September 5th.
Bill Connelly’s preseason SP+ rankings landed Duke at No. 45 on Thursday, which is close to where the Blue Devils finished last season after going 9-4 and winning the ACC title. The ranking itself isn’t the alarming part. The issue is what it says about the team’s biggest weakness: the defense.
Last season, Duke checked in at No. 86 in defensive SP+. Connelly’s projection has Manny Diaz’s group climbing only to No. 80 this year. That’s not nearly enough for a team that needs the defense to do a lot more heavy lifting.
Duke’s offense was good enough to mask plenty of issues a year ago, finishing in the Top 20. Connelly thinks it can live there again, but that feels like a tall order with the Blue Devils changing identities.
The plan now is less about quarterback-driven fireworks and more about a power-run approach built around a veteran offensive line and Nate Sheppard. Diaz is hoping either Walker Eget or Dan Mahan can simply manage the game well enough to keep things on track.
But the real storyline is on the other side of the ball. Duke has to get better there, and quickly.
The Blue Devils are replacing both starting defensive ends, and both of those players are now on NFL rosters. There is talent in the front, but it comes with questions.
The secondary may be even more important, because Duke was one of the worst pass defenses in college football last season. Three starters are back in that group, yet Diaz said earlier in fall camp that no jobs had been decided back there.
Duke also added competition through the Transfer Portal, bringing in Che Ojarikre from Stanford, Patrick Smith-Young from North Texas, Dylan Flowers from Western Kentucky, Kyon Loud from Montana, and Evan Smith from Northwestern.
If the defense can make a real jump - even into the Top 50 range - Duke can survive some expected regression on offense. If it doesn’t, Diaz and the Blue Devils could find themselves in a much tougher fight just to stay bowl eligible.
In Other News...
Cam Williams Faces Early Doubts Before His First Duke Season
Cam Williams arrives at Duke with the kind of rsum that usually comes with immediate expectations, especially for a freshman projected to be a front-line piece before he even steps on campus. The five-star recruit is the top-ranked power forward in the 2026 signing class, and his first season with the Blue Devils will already carry the added weight of NBA eyes tracking his long-term ceiling.
But not every early read has been glowing, as one NBA analyst has already raised concerns about Williams' defense and consistency and penciled him outside the top-10 picks in the 2027 NBA Draft. For Duke, that only adds another layer to a season that should be about development as much as results, with Williams getting a full year to answer those questions and reshape the draft conversation around him. [Read more 🡒]
Walker Eget Could Decide How High Dukes Offense Can Climb
Walker Egets arrival gives Duke a quarterback competition with real stakes as the Blue Devils sort out life after Darian Mensah, who led the ACC in passing yards and touchdowns last season. The San Jose State transfer brings starting experience and the kind of production that made him an intriguing pickup, while Duke is still trying to figure out how high the offense can climb with a new face under center.
Manny Diaz has kept the door open, and the race is still a two-man conversation between Eget and redshirt freshman Dan Mahan. Egets rsum makes him the more proven option on paper, but the question hanging over the job is whether that success can carry over when the level of competition rises. [Read more 🡒]
Duke Special Teams Could Decide More Than Fans Realize Early On
Dukes special teams group is taking on a bigger role than it might get credit for as the Blue Devils prepare for Tulane, with a few familiar and new faces settling into key jobs. Cosme Salas is expected to step in as the primary field goal kicker in place of Todd Pelino, while Kade Reynoldson is back as the starting punter and Jayden Moore is set to handle both punt and kickoff returns.
For a unit that can swing field position and finish drives, the early-season configuration matters for Dukes rhythm on both sides of the ball. The Blue Devils are lining up with a clearer picture of who will handle the kicking and return work, and how cleanly that group operates against Tulane could shape more than just one phase of the game. [Read more 🡒]