Duke’s 3-0 start has the record, but not ESPN’s full confidence.
The Blue Devils have opened the season with three straight wins, including two non-conference victories and their first Atlantic Coast Conference game. That perfect start has Duke sitting among the 35 unbeaten teams in college football, and a Week 4 home matchup with William & Mary gives them a clear chance to move to 4-0.
Still, ESPN’s Bill Connelly wasn’t especially impressed when he ranked the unbeaten teams earlier this week. Duke came in at No. 26 on the list, a placement that lines up with where the program sits in SP+ at 46th and FPI at 35th. In Connelly’s view, the numbers suggest Duke hasn’t faced a demanding schedule and hasn’t exactly blown people away either.
The offense is a big reason for that skepticism. Connelly said he doesn’t trust it yet because it has been basically give the ball to Nate Sheppard.
At the same time, he pointed to better play from Walker Eget over the last few weeks, a sign that the quarterback position may be trending in the right direction. Sheppard remains one of the best running backs in the country, and if Duke gets more consistent quarterback play and more from the rest of the offense, there’s room for the unit to take another step.
The road ahead is where Duke will have to prove more than just early-season competence. The Blue Devils are heading into the heart of their ACC schedule, and while Miami is the only ranked opponent currently left on the slate, games against North Carolina and at NC State could also create problems.
ESPN gave Duke just a 1.1% chance of finishing 12-0.
The outlet also updated its bowl projections after Week 3, and Duke showed up in two different spots. Kyle Bonagura projected the Blue Devils against Northwestern in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl on Saturday, December 26th, while Mark Schlabach slotted them against Navy in the Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl on Monday, December 28th.
Both matchups fit ACC bowl tie-ins, but Duke’s ambitions go beyond a solid postseason landing spot. The Blue Devils are aiming higher, including a repeat as ACC champions.
For now, though, the next stop is William & Mary in Durham, with that game leading into Duke’s first bye week of the season.
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Dukes 3-0 start has given Manny Diaz exactly the kind of early momentum he wanted after last years ACC title, but what stands out most to him is not just the record. It is the way this group has carried itself with expectations on its shoulders, looking more settled and less likely to play tight as the spotlight grows brighter. After the win over Stanford, the Blue Devils also showed the kind of offensive balance that can travel, with Nate Sheppard leading the ground game and helping set the tone from the start.
Diaz has been consistent about what he believes this team can be, and it starts up front. Duke wants to win the old-fashioned way, by leaning on physicality and controlling the trenches, which gives the offense a clear identity no matter the opponent or the setting. If the Blue Devils keep handling the pressure of being the favorite the way they have so far, the rest of the ACC is going to keep paying attention. [Read more 🡒]
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That evaluation begins right away, with a schedule that should give Duke a few chances to learn before the pressure ramps up. Early matchups against Army, Coastal Carolina and SIU Edwardsville offer some room to test combinations and roles, but the bigger issue is what happens once the competition stiffens and Scheyer has to make the kind of minute-allocation decisions that can define a season. [Read more 🡒]