The ACC has had its share of rough seasons, but 2025 might be the most chaotic yet-and the wild ride isn’t over. With the conference championship game looming, the league is staring down a scenario that could leave its champion on the outside looking in when the College Football Playoff field is announced.
Let’s set the stage: Clemson, the preseason favorite and longtime ACC powerhouse, stumbled out of contention early. Florida State looked like a contender after a massive win over Alabama, only to unravel down the stretch. And then there’s Duke-yes, Duke-who punched their ticket to Charlotte after Cal stunned SMU, opening the door for the Blue Devils to sneak into the title game.
Now, if Virginia takes care of business on Saturday, the ACC can breathe a little easier. A win by the Cavaliers would almost certainly lock in a playoff spot for the conference.
But if Duke pulls off the upset? That’s where things get complicated-and potentially disastrous for the ACC.
Here’s the issue: Duke enters the championship game with a 7-5 record. That’s not just underwhelming-it’s the kind of resume that makes playoff committee members squirm.
And to make matters worse, they’ve already lost to Tulane this season. So if Tulane takes care of North Texas in the American Athletic Conference title game, it’s entirely plausible the committee could rank the Green Wave ahead of a 7-5 Duke team, even if Duke wins the ACC.
And Tulane might not be the only Group of Five team in play. James Madison, sitting at 11-1, is set to face Troy in the Sun Belt title game.
If the Dukes win, they’ll have a strong case-arguably a stronger one than a five-loss ACC champion. That’s the kind of storyline that catches the committee’s eye: a G5 team with a dominant record leapfrogging a power conference champ.
It’s a scenario that would’ve been unthinkable not long ago. But with the expanded playoff format guaranteeing spots to the top five conference champions, there’s no safety net for a league like the ACC if its champion is sitting at 8-5 and lacking a signature win.
And let’s not forget Miami. The Hurricanes wrapped up a 10-2 season, including a marquee win over Notre Dame, but they’re likely on the outside of the playoff picture as well. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a program that looked like it had finally turned a corner.
All of this sets up a high-stakes Saturday for the ACC. Virginia winning keeps the league in the playoff conversation.
But a Duke upset? That could be the nightmare scenario-a conference champion left out of the playoff entirely.
It’s happened before-Florida State fans still remember the sting of being left out in the four-team era-but this would be on another level. In a 12-team field, getting left out as a Power Four champion would be a brutal indictment of where the ACC stands right now.
So buckle up. The ACC title game isn’t just about a trophy-it might be about survival in the eyes of the playoff committee.