Duke’s 3-0 start has the Blue Devils in a strong spot, and ESPN’s Football Power Index likes what it sees the rest of the way.
After opening the year with wins over Tulane and Stanford and then pulling off an upset at Illinois in Week 2, Duke is once again unbeaten through three games under Manny Diaz. It’s the second time in three seasons the Blue Devils have opened 3-0, and the early formula has been clear: a sharper defense and a huge dose of Nate Sheppard.
Sheppard has been the engine. He leads the nation in all-purpose yards at 196.7 per game, sits first in rushing at 176.00 per game and shares the national touchdown lead with Florida’s Jadan Baugh and UCLA’s Wayne Knight with eight. That kind of production gives Duke a real edge as it heads into the stretch run.
The Blue Devils still have William & Mary on Saturday before a bye, and then it’s conference play the rest of the way. According to ESPN’s FPI rankings, Duke is favored in all but two of its remaining games.
Here’s how the numbers break down, with ratings updated Tuesday, Sept. 21:
Week 4: William & Mary - 99.0 percent
The Tribe should be little more than a speed bump for Duke, but the Blue Devils have already seen how dangerous a sleepy start can be. Early-season problems against Elon over the last two years are a reminder not to coast.
Week 6: at Georgia Tech - 64.5 percent
Georgia Tech is still a bit hard to pin down, but a home date with an unbeaten Duke team could bring out something extra from the Yellow Jackets.
Week 7: UNC - 67.8 percent
UNC’s latest loss came after a lightning delay at Clemson, and the collapse only added to a rough week for Bill Belichick’s program.
Week 8: at Virginia - 43.8 percent
This one is still one of the trickier calls on the slate, though Duke’s chances have climbed from 27.3 percent last week after Virginia lost to West Virginia.
Week 9: Boston College - 89.6 percent
Boston College’s narrow 22-16 win over Maine didn’t do much to build confidence in Bill O’Brien’s team.
Week 10: at NC State - 65.9 percent
NC State nearly let one slip away against Vanderbilt, carrying a 99.9 percent win chance with less than 10 seconds left before things turned.
Week 11: at Miami - 10.7 percent
This is the outlier. Miami has not looked untouchable, but it still projects as a very tough road trip for Duke.
Week 12: Clemson - 65.2 percent
The odds of Duke making it two straight against Clemson keep rising as Dabo Swinney’s team continues to struggle.
Week 13: at Wake Forest - 58.1 percent
If Duke gets here with the season still rolling, this game could have real weight in the race for a second straight ACC title game appearance.
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William & Mary arrives in Durham with a rsum that looks a little more dangerous than its record might suggest, which is exactly why this kind of nonconference date can turn slippery if a favorite comes out flat. The Tribe opened the season with a wild finish at Villanova and has shown enough fight to make opponents pay for lapses, even if the overall results have been uneven since then.
Duke linebacker Nick Morris, Jr. made it clear the Blue Devils are preparing for a team that will compete for four quarters, not just a name on the schedule. And for a Duke team expected to handle business comfortably, this is the sort of Saturday that can say a lot about focus, maturity and whether the Blue Devils treat a heavily favored spot like a routine win or a proving ground. [Read more 🡒]
Duke Is Mourning A Sudden Loss Tied Closely To Coach K
Duke is facing a painful reminder of how tightly its basketball family is woven together after the sudden death of Chris Spatola, the ESPN college basketball analyst and former Blue Devils staff member. He died on Sept. 21, 2026, and both ESPN and Duke University confirmed the news, each highlighting a rsum that stretched from broadcasting to coaching to service as an Army veteran.
Spatolas connection to the program ran well beyond a line on a staff directory. He was part of the Duke orbit in a way that tied him closely to the Coach K era, and the tributes that followed reflected how widely he was respected around the sport. For Duke, the loss lands not just as the passing of a familiar voice, but as the loss of someone whose life and career were bound up with the program's most defining chapter. [Read more 🡒]
Manny Diaz Sent Duke Fans A Message With His Opening Gamble
Dukes 35-7 win over Stanford in Week 3 did more than keep the Blue Devils unbeaten at 3-0. It also offered a clear glimpse of how Manny Diaz wants this team to carry itself, with an aggressive edge that has become part of the programs early identity. The result fit the tone, too, as Duke has now given up only six second-half points through its first three games and is looking more and more like a team that expects to matter in the ACC.
Diazs biggest message came before the game ever settled in, through a bold opening gamble that signaled confidence instead of caution. It was the kind of move meant to tell players and opponents alike that Duke intends to play on its own terms, not sit back and hope things break right. For a team trying to establish itself as more than a fast start, that mindset may end up being as important as the scoreboard. [Read more 🡒]