Duke enters the new season with one of the strongest preseason computer projections in the country, and KenPom sees the Blue Devils finishing ahead of everyone else.
While Duke is likely to open the year at No. 2 in the preseason AP Poll behind expected No. 1 Florida, KenPom’s preseason rankings give Jon Scheyer’s team the slight edge.
Duke checks in at No. 1 with a 34.42 Net Rating, just ahead of Florida at No. 2 with a Net Rating of 33.38. Houston lands at No. 3 and is the only other team projected above a 30.0 Net Rating.
That’s a notable jump in confidence, even for a program that finished last season at No. 3 in KenPom with a 37.37 Net Rating.
The Blue Devils are projected to be excellent on both ends again. KenPom has Duke at No. 3 nationally in adjusted offense and No. 3 in adjusted defense. Last season, Duke finished sixth on offense and third on defense.
The bigger picture is even better for the Blue Devils. KenPom projects Duke to go 27-5 overall and 16-2 in ACC play, but the game-by-game outlook shows just how favorable the model is on Scheyer’s roster.
Only one matchup comes in below a 60% win probability: the Dec. 1 road game at Florida. Beyond that, Duke has just four other games with an expected win percentage under 70%:
vs. Michigan State (neutral): 67%
vs. UConn (neutral): 69%
at Virginia: 60%
at Louisville: 64%
KenPom also expects Duke to take care of business against North Carolina in Michael Malone’s first season. The Blue Devils are given a 90% chance to win at home and a 73% chance to win on the road in the regular-season meetings. North Carolina is ranked No. 37 in KenPom’s preseason outlook, with a projected 21-11 record and a 10-8 mark in ACC play.
Virginia looks like Duke’s main ACC threat in the projections. The Cavaliers, who finished runner-up to the Blue Devils last season, are slotted at No.
- Louisville comes in at No. 17 and Miami at No. 22, giving the league three teams inside KenPom’s top 25.
North Carolina and Clemson are the only other ACC teams in the top 50, at No. 37 and No. 50.
KenPom’s numbers suggest the ACC is stronger at the top than it was a year ago, with Virginia, Louisville and Miami all positioned to challenge Duke. Still, the league’s overall depth remains a question, with plenty of middling teams filling out the middle of the conference.
In Other News...
Duke Still Has A Transfer Question Heading Into North Carolina
Dukes first loss of the 2026 season came in a 28-25 setback to Georgia Tech, and even in defeat there were reasons to think the offense can keep carrying its weight. The Blue Devils battled through costly penalties, but receivers Jared Richardson and Jaivon Solomon helped keep the attack moving, while linebacker Luke Mergott stood out on the other side of the ball in a game that still felt competitive deep into the finish.
Still, the bigger question for the stretch ahead is whether the transfer additions can become more than background pieces as the schedule tightens. Duke has leaned on a few familiar names early, but players like Owen Wafle and Javen Nicholas have not yet made a major imprint this season, leaving the Blue Devils with some uncertainty to sort out before North Carolina comes into view. [Read more 🡒]
Duke Showed Real Fight At Georgia Tech But One Concern Remains
Duke went on the road to Georgia Tech and came away with a close loss, but the bigger takeaway was how much fight the Blue Devils showed from start to finish. Walker Eget kept the offense moving by completing 26 of 41 passes for 259 yards and a touchdown, while Nate Sheppard was a steady presence despite playing with a taped foot and leading the team in both rushing and receiving.
There was plenty to like beyond the box score, too. Duke found encouraging signs across the offensive line, defensive line, linebackers and secondary, and the late comeback push suggested the group still has some resilience when the game tightens up. Even so, the loss left one concern lingering, because for all the effort and improvement, there are still areas that need to come together if this team wants to turn close games into wins. [Read more 🡒]
Duke May Be Building An Early Edge In A Huge Recruiting Battle
Jon Scheyer keeps giving Duke reasons to feel good about its long view on the recruiting trail, and the latest buzz only adds to it. The Blue Devils already have commitments from Australian point guard Luke Paul and five-star forward Kager Knueppel in the 2027 class, giving the staff an early base to sell as it keeps circling some of the nations most coveted young prospects.
The more interesting layer is what could happen if the calendar keeps moving in Dukes favor. The program has also picked up a crystal ball prediction for five-star forward Asa Montgomery and five-star 2028 prospect Colton Hiller, who recently took an official visit to Durham, while Scheyer has openly pointed to the growing possibility of top recruits reclassifying and reaching college sooner. If that trend keeps picking up, the Blue Devils may be positioning themselves not just to land elite talent, but to land it earlier than everyone else expects. [Read more 🡒]