The preseason AP Poll landed on Monday, and the order at the top was exactly what plenty of people expected: Florida at No. 1, Duke right behind it at No. 2.
That setup makes for an easy headline, but not necessarily the clearest picture of which team looks stronger on paper. KenPom disagrees with the AP voters and has Duke ahead of Florida in his preseason rankings. And after Florida’s exhibition loss in Jacksonville over the weekend, the argument for Duke gets a lot easier to make.
Florida dropped that game 82-76 to Baylor, and the box score put the Gators’ biggest issue right in the spotlight. Denzel Aberdeen, the Kentucky transfer and one-time Gator who is currently eligible for a fifth year thanks to a TRO, went 3-of-17 from the floor and missed all 10 of his 3-point attempts. He was supposed to be a major fix for a backcourt that wasn’t good enough last season, a group that played a role in Florida’s shocking Round of 32 loss to Iowa in the NCAA Tournament.
The problems didn’t stop there. Boogie Fland finished with 13 points, but he still looks more dangerous on the defensive end than he does as an offensive engine.
Urban Klavzar, coming off the bench, missed all seven of his shots in 20 minutes. Florida has real questions in the backcourt, and those questions don’t go away just because Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu are back up front.
The minutes tell you plenty about how much Florida wanted that exhibition, too. Todd Golden played Condon and Haugh more than 38 minutes, Chinyelu logged 33, and Aberdeen and Fland each got 36.
That was not a casual tune-up. Florida wanted to win, and it didn’t.
Maybe it was just a cold night. Basketball gives you those sometimes. But it also looked like an early sign that the Gators may be stuck with the same guard issues that hurt them a year ago.
Duke, on the other hand, doesn’t have that problem.
The Blue Devils have a frontcourt that can hang with Florida’s, with Patrick Ngongba and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje giving them size inside. Dame Sarr has the physical tools to line up against Haugh, and freshman Cameron Williams adds another long option at the three.
The difference comes when the game shifts to the perimeter. Duke’s backcourt looks steadier and deeper, with Caleb Foster and John Blackwell bringing veteran presence and Cayden Boozer and Deron Rippey Jr. adding talent on the younger end.
Florida may have a slight edge inside, but it isn’t a massive one. At guard, Duke clearly has the better group.
That’s why there’s a real case the Blue Devils should have been No. 1 instead of No. 2.
In Other News...
Dukes UNC Snap Counts Raised A Few New Lineup Questions
Dukes narrow 24-20 loss to North Carolina came with a few lineup clues tucked inside the snap counts, and they added another layer to a game the Blue Devils spent much of the afternoon chasing after an early hole. Pro Football Focus numbers showed transfer Javen Nicholas getting a season-high 11 snaps and hauling in two passes, a sign the staff kept searching for ways to get him involved as the offense tried to find answers.
On the other side of the ball, veteran Kimari Robinson opened at nickel cornerback with Evan Smith out, a move that gave Duke a different look in the secondary. There was also a bit of juggling at running back, where Nate Sheppard handled most of the workload despite dealing with a lower-body ailment, while backup CJ Campbell saw only limited action, leaving a few more questions for the Blue Devils to sort through after a tight rivalry game. [Read more 🡒]
Duke Suddenly Has One Big Problem Heading Into Virginia
Dukes early momentum has given way to a bumpier stretch, with the Blue Devils now sitting at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in ACC play after back-to-back losses, including the defeat at North Carolina. The recent review of the roster points to one area in particular that has become hard to ignore, as the passing game has not looked as sharp as it did when Duke was stacking wins earlier in the season.
As Virginia comes into focus, the concern is not just about the losing streak but about whether Duke can get the offense back to a steadier rhythm before league play tightens further. The position-by-position breakdown suggests there are still pieces in place to work with, but the next step will be finding more consistency where the Blue Devils have recently struggled most. [Read more 🡒]
Dukes Loaded Roster Just Got One Clear Message Before Opening Night
Floridas return to the top of the preseason AP Top 25 puts an early spotlight on the heavyweight tier Duke is already standing in. The Gators checked in at No. 1 with 47 of 59 first-place votes, their first preseason No. 1 spot since 2006, while Duke landed at No. 2 and Illinois at No. 3 after both also drew first-place support. For a Blue Devils roster that has already been getting plenty of attention, the message before opening night is simple: the respect is real, but the runway to prove it starts now.
For Duke, being slotted just behind the nations top-ranked team only sharpens the stakes around a group built to be watched closely from the opening tip. Preseason polls do not decide anything, of course, but they do set the tone, and this one places the Blue Devils firmly in the middle of the championship conversation before a game has been played. The question now is whether all that early belief turns into the kind of season that matches the buzz. [Read more 🡒]