Duke vs. Texas Tech: Blue Devils Eye Another Statement Win at Madison Square Garden
Duke basketball is back under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden, and once again, the stakes are high. The No.
3 Blue Devils (11-0) are putting their perfect record on the line against No. 19 Texas Tech (8-3) in a marquee nonconference showdown that tips off at 8 p.m.
ET on ESPN.
This will be Duke’s fifth test against a ranked opponent before they dive into ACC play at the end of the month. So far, they’ve passed every one of those tests with flying colors, going 4-0 in those matchups. And with the way they’re playing on both ends of the floor, it’s easy to see why they’re sitting undefeated in mid-December.
Duke’s Momentum Keeps Building
The Blue Devils are coming off a 97-73 win over Lipscomb, a game that showed both their flaws and their firepower. After a first half riddled with turnovers and fouls, Duke flipped the switch in the second, outscoring the Bison 49-28 and putting the game away with authority.
That win also marked a milestone for head coach Jon Scheyer, who picked up his 100th career victory - the fastest to hit that mark in ACC history. Not bad company to keep.
Texas Tech’s Talented, But Tested
Texas Tech enters this matchup with some serious offensive firepower, but they’ve struggled to convert that into wins against elite competition. The Red Raiders are 0-3 against ranked opponents this season, with losses to Illinois, Purdue, and Arkansas. Each of those games exposed different issues - from cold shooting stretches to defensive lapses - and they’ll need to put together a more complete performance if they want to hang with Duke.
Still, this is a team with talent, starting with 6-foot-9 forward JT Toppin. He’s been a force all season, averaging 21.9 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, while also contributing 1.8 steals.
Toppin has already posted five double-doubles and is coming off a 31-point night against Northern Colorado. He’s the kind of player who can take over a game - and Duke will have to account for him on every possession.
In the backcourt, Christian Anderson is the engine. He’s the nation’s third-best distributor with 82 assists and is also second on the team in scoring at 19.3 points per game.
Anderson and Toppin form a dangerous one-two punch, and when they’re rolling, the Red Raiders can score with anyone. LeJuan Watts (14 ppg) and Donovan Atwell (11.3 ppg) round out a group that has four players averaging double figures.
Perimeter Shooting Could Swing This Game
Texas Tech is a top-50 team nationally in three-point shooting, hitting 36.8% from beyond the arc. Anderson and Atwell are both shooting over 40% from deep - but that efficiency hasn’t always translated against top-tier defenses.
Against Illinois and Purdue, the Red Raiders struggled mightily from distance, going a combined 14-for-56 (25%) in those two games. Even in a high-scoring loss to Arkansas, where they shot 41.9% from three, their defense couldn’t hold up.
That’s where Duke’s defense becomes a real problem for Texas Tech. The Blue Devils are elite on that end of the floor - No. 1 in the nation in adjusted field goal percentage allowed (40.5%) and No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
Opponents are shooting just 34.6% from the field and 27% from three against Duke, and they’re averaging only 60.8 points per game. Simply put: Duke makes you earn every bucket.
Texas Tech’s Defense Faces a Tall Task
The Red Raiders have been less consistent on the defensive end, allowing 73.9 points per game - 202nd in the country. That’s a tough stat heading into a matchup with a Duke offense that’s averaging 87.7 points per contest and ranks among the top 40 in scoring nationally.
And let’s not forget, Duke is led by the nation’s top scorer in Cameron Boozer, who’s putting up 23.3 points per game. Boozer has been a matchup nightmare all season, and with the way Duke spaces the floor and moves the ball, Texas Tech will have its hands full trying to contain him and the rest of the Blue Devil attack.
Neutral Site Advantage? Duke’s Comfortable at the Garden
This isn’t Duke’s first rodeo at Madison Square Garden this season. The Blue Devils already notched a big win there over Kansas back in November, and the venue has earned the nickname “Cameron North” for a reason. Duke is 3-0 on neutral courts this season and historically has played some of its best basketball under the MSG lights.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, is 2-2 at neutral sites this year. And while they’ve shown flashes of high-level play, they haven’t yet put together a complete performance against a team of Duke’s caliber.
The history between these two programs is limited but meaningful. Duke holds a 2-0 all-time edge, including a 78-73 win in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2022 NCAA Tournament. And fittingly, their first-ever meeting came at Madison Square Garden - exactly seven years ago to the day of this matchup - with Duke winning that one as well, 69-58.
Prediction
Duke 80, Texas Tech 73
Duke has the edge in just about every category heading into this one - defense, experience, momentum, and a proven track record in big games.
Texas Tech has the talent to make it interesting, especially if their shooters get hot early, but Duke’s defensive pressure and offensive balance should carry the day. Look for the Blue Devils to tighten things up after a sloppy start against Lipscomb and put together another strong showing under the Garden lights.