Framber Valdez’s first half in Detroit has been a letdown, and the reason isn’t some dramatic injury or a sudden loss of stuff. The left-hander is healthy. The problem is that the version of Valdez the Tigers thought they were getting has only flashed here and there.
Detroit brought Valdez in to pair him with Tarik Skubal and give the rotation another arm at the top. Instead, the Tigers entered Thursday at 42-50 and were only 7-11 in Valdez’s starts. That’s a long way from the impact they expected when they signed him in free agency.
The pressure only grew as injuries hit Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Skubal and Justin Verlander. Valdez stayed on the mound, but he hasn’t consistently looked like the dependable starter he was for years. Before Thursday’s outing, he had just 1.0 WAR with a 4.29 ERA and a 4.30 FIP.
The biggest reason traces back to his curveball. That pitch used to be the separator, the one that turned Valdez from a solid starter into one of the American League’s most dominant left-handers. This year, it hasn’t been nearly as sharp.
In 2025 with Houston, Valdez threw the curve 33.1% of the time. It produced a 43.7% whiff rate, got strikeouts against 44.6% of the hitters who ended a plate appearance against it and held opponents to a .298 slugging percentage.
In Detroit, those numbers have slipped across the board. His curveball usage is down to 27.6%. The whiff rate has dropped to 29.8%, the strikeout rate to 28.6%, and opponents are slugging .382 against it.
That’s the story in a nutshell: the pitch still moves, but it isn’t taking over at-bats the way it once did. It’s missing fewer bats, ending fewer plate appearances and giving up harder contact when hitters do connect.
And once that edge faded, the rest of Valdez’s profile started to wobble too.
At his best, he could still get by even when the curve wasn’t perfect. He lived on ground balls, kept the ball in the park and finished hitters when he got ahead. In Detroit, those strengths have all backed up at once.
The ground-ball drop stands out the most. Valdez never needed elite strikeout totals because he made up for it with weak contact.
Without that cushion, every ball in play has become more dangerous. His strikeout rate has also fallen to its lowest point in five seasons, and his strikeout-to-walk differential has tightened considerably.
That’s a much thinner margin for error than he had during his peak years.
This slump didn’t start the moment he changed uniforms, either. In the second half of 2025 with Houston, Valdez went 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA while allowing a 107 OPS+. What Detroit has seen is more continuation than collapse.
There has been one small bright spot: his slider. Its whiff rate has climbed to 19.9%, but it still makes up less than five percent of his repertoire.
The bigger issue shows up when the count gets to two strikes. For much of his career, that was where Valdez took control.
This season, hitters have been hanging around longer and doing more damage in those spots.
That’s why the curveball matters so much. Its decline doesn’t explain everything, but it explains enough to understand why a pitcher once built on weak contact and big moments now looks more like a middle-of-the-rotation arm than the ace Detroit signed.
Against the Athletics, though, Valdez looked much more like the pitcher the Tigers expected. He went seven innings, allowed one run and struck out nine in his best start of the season.
The velocity wasn’t the story. His sinker averaged 94.3 mph and his curveball 78.8 mph, both basically in line with his season norms. The difference was how often he leaned on his best pitch.
Valdez threw 87 pitches and used the curve 31% of the time, above his season average. It was his most effective version of the pitch all year, producing 18 whiffs.
He got eight swings and misses on 16 swings, good for a 50% whiff rate. The Athletics went 0-for-13 with nine strikeouts in two-strike counts and didn’t record a hit or score a run against the curveball.
The third time through the order, he turned up the curve even more, using it 55% of the time and regaining control of at-bats.
One start doesn’t wipe away a rough first half, and it doesn’t mean Valdez has found himself for good. Even after posting his highest Game Score of the season, 76 using Bill James’ formula, he still hasn’t put together three straight quality starts all year.
But Thursday did sharpen the picture. Valdez doesn’t need to reinvent himself.
He needs to lean back into the curveball that built his career. For one night, that version of Framber Valdez finally showed up again.
In Other News...
Three Years Later Scott Harris' First Tigers Draft Faces Its Verdict
Three years after Scott Harris made his first draft at the helm, the Tigers are finally getting a clearer read on how that 2023 class is taking shape. The headliners still give the group its appeal: Max Clark has kept moving through the system, Max Anderson has shown real offensive progress, and Kevin McGonigle has advanced quickly enough to become one of the organizations most important young names.
The verdict is not complete, though, because the class has also been shaped by the usual draft-day uncertainty, especially on the pitching side. Hamm and Paul Wilson have both dealt with injury setbacks that have slowed their progress, which leaves the Tigers weighing upside against availability as the class enters a more meaningful stage of evaluation. [Read more 🡒]
How To Watch The MLB Draft As Tigers Pick Multiple Times Day 1
The 2026 MLB Draft will unfold over two days during All-Star Week in Philadelphia, with the first four rounds set for Saturday and the rest of the class coming off the board Sunday. For Tigers fans, the timing should make for a busy opening day, since Detroit is positioned to be in the mix multiple times before the draft even gets out of the early rounds.
Coverage starts on NBC and Peacock for the first 10 picks before moving to MLB Network and MLB.com for the rest, with the White Sox holding the No. 1 overall selection. A few clubs have also been hit with draft pick penalties for crossing the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, adding another layer to how the board could unfold, and the Tigers will be watching closely as their own Day 1 opportunities begin to stack up. [Read more 🡒]