The Tigers’ season ended in disappointment, but the winter ahead does at least offer one possible bright spot: a legitimate, if long-shot, path to the No. 1 pick in the 2027 MLB Draft.
Detroit is one of the teams headed into the draft lottery after missing October, and while the odds are far from favorable, they are still in the mix. Through Game 162, Tankathon had the Tigers projected to land at No. 7, with a 4.51% chance of drawing the first overall pick.
The lottery will determine the first six selections, and the odds are shaped by regular-season record. The Tigers’ chances are distant, but they are there.
A few clubs sit ahead of them in the race. The Rockies, Angels and Athletics each have 19.1% odds of landing the top pick as the only teams under .400. The Royals, Mets and Reds round out the group most likely to make up the first six selections.
There are also restrictions in place for some teams. The Giants and Pirates will be ineligible to pick within the first 10 next year.
For Detroit, the broader picture is that it has gone two straight years without a pick in the first 10, or even the first 20. That was the cost of making the postseason in back-to-back years, and the club is now back in the lottery mix.
The draft lottery itself is still a relatively new wrinkle, introduced before the 2023 season and based on 2022 records. Detroit has already had some swings with it.
The Tigers landed the No. 3 pick despite four teams finishing with worse records, then used it to select Bryce Rainer. A year later, they slipped to No. 11 when the Guardians won the top spot in a major upset, and Detroit used that selection on Travis Bazzana.
That kind of volatility is exactly why even a low-probability shot still matters. And if the Tigers don’t climb all the way to No. 1, they could still come away with a valuable top-15 - or maybe even top-six - selection.
There’s also another piece of draft-related upside waiting for Detroit: a PPI pick tied to Kevin McGonigle’s expected Rookie of the Year award. Under Scott Harris, the Tigers have gotten respectable value from their first-round picks overall, with Jace Jung standing as the possible exception. Cameron Flukey, taken later in the first round, already looks like a solid bet, and another premium pick could give Detroit a chance at real impact talent.
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