Tarik Skubal is about to walk into one of the biggest pitching markets baseball has seen in years, and the price tag is only getting louder.
The Dodgers got him at the deadline after the Tigers decided not to pay the left-hander what he wanted. Now Skubal is headed for free agency this winter anyway, and at 29 with two straight AL Cy Young Awards on his resume, he’s positioned to cash in like a true ace. Detroit may have moved on once already, but Skubal hasn’t completely closed the door on a return.
That possibility starts with the money. The Tigers and Skubal were already locked in a historic arbitration fight last offseason, with Detroit aiming to pay him $19 million in 2026 before he won the case and landed a record-setting $32 million salary. Then came the trade to Los Angeles when the Tigers were struggling, a move that sent their star pitcher to the Dodgers as they chased a third straight title.
Now the bidding is about to begin, and the floor is massive. Skubal’s age and production have pushed projections to at least $300 million in total value, with plenty of room for more. To get there, he’d need to blow past Zack Wheeler’s current $42 million AAV, while also threatening Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million mark for the biggest pitcher deal by total money.
A contract in the eight-year, $43 million-per-year range would put Skubal at $344 million and set a new record. A nine-year, $360 million deal would carry him through age 38 and would also establish new non-Shohei Ohtani pitching records for AAV and total cash. And even with injury concerns earlier this season, a deal north of $380 million wouldn’t be a shock.
The Dodgers and Mets are expected to be the heavy hitters in what could become a historic bidding war, but Detroit still lingers in the background because Skubal hasn’t ruled it out himself.
“I would love to play my whole career in Detroit. I would love to,” Skubal said, per MLB.com.
“And hopefully those negotiations can pick back up in November once the playoffs are done. We’ll see where that goes.
Hopefully they’re involved with everything. I would love to return."
That’s not nothing. It suggests a reunion isn’t dead, and maybe not even far-fetched if Skubal is willing to leave some money on the table for familiarity.
But the Tigers’ own actions tell the bigger story. They traded him in the summer after already showing they weren’t ready to meet his number, and that makes a reversal feel unlikely.
“This wasn’t the way the season was supposed to go. Going into the offseason, [with] the people that we acquired through free agency and who we signed, I’m like, ‘This is the World Series team,’” Skubal said of the Tigers after being traded.
“This is the team that I’m gonna go and win a World Series and beat anybody. It doesn’t matter what’s going on.”
For now, Detroit still has a path, at least in theory. In reality, the market is shaping up to be too rich, too aggressive, and too stacked against a Tigers reunion.
Framber Valdez already sits at $38.3 million AAV in their rotation picture, and the Skubal sweepstakes are likely to climb beyond that in a hurry. But if the market gets weird, or if Skubal decides the fit matters as much as the dollars, the Tigers are not entirely out of the conversation.
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