Shota Imanaga’s appeal has always come with a warning label, and it’s the same one the Tigers would have to weigh if they decide to chase him: the home runs.
Since arriving in the majors with the Cubs in 2024 at age 30, the Japanese left-hander has given up 93 homers in his first three seasons, the most by any pitcher in that span. His latest year only sharpened the concern, with the league posting a 16.1% home run rate per fly ball in 2026, the highest of his career.
That issue didn’t start in Chicago. Imanaga has been living with it for years.
During his six seasons with the Yokohama BayStars, he posted an HR/FB rate above 10% in four of them. He has never been a big strikeout arm, so his game has always depended on limiting hard contact and getting ground balls.
When he kept BABIP under control, his value spiked thanks to his arm strength and the steadiness he’s shown throughout his career.
His first MLB season still gave plenty of reasons for optimism. Imanaga went 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA, a 3.72 FIP and a league-best 6.21 SO/BB rate.
That performance landed him fourth in Rookie of the Year voting and fifth in the Cy Young race. But the follow-up was rougher.
His bWAR fell from 3.0 to 1.5, and he finished 2026 with a career-high 35 home runs allowed.
The damage, though, is fairly concentrated. Seventy-two percent of those homers came against his fastball, 78% were hit by right-handed batters and 70% came with the bases empty.
Even with that flaw, the overall body of work still stands out. Of the 189 runs Imanaga has allowed in his career, 69% - 131 - have come via home runs.
And if he had not been so vulnerable to the long ball, his impact in each of the three seasons in which he has allowed at least 27 homers would look even stronger. He has averaged 195 innings per 162 games played, and his career 3.92 xFIP remains solid for a pitcher who gives up as much loud contact as he does.
For Detroit, the fit is at least worth considering. Scott Harris has already said the Tigers’ priorities include arms that bring experience, power against both batter profiles and consistency to the bullpen. Their first move this winter was right-hander Emilio Pagan, who has saved 57 games for the Cincinnati Reds over the last two seasons.
They are also expected to be in the market for a closer, with Raisel Iglesias and David Bednar among the top names. Bednar must still decide whether to accept the New York Yankees’ $23.15 million qualifying offer or test free agency.
But there’s another question hanging over Detroit’s winter: whether Harris and the Tigers also plan to add another left-handed starter to pair with Framber Valdez. That kind of move would make sense, even if the team has no interest in advertising it.
I recently wrote about David Peterson as a possible middle-rotation fit who wouldn’t cost a fortune, and Imanaga belongs in that same conversation. In some ways, he’s been the more reliable and durable pitcher.
His 2026 season also showed why teams will keep looking past the home runs. Imanaga cut his fastball usage from 48.7% in 2025 to 40.1% this year, and that adjustment helped lower his home run total to 17, down from 24 the year before.
It was still a lot, but it was also the fewest he has allowed in a season. More importantly, he improved the way he used the pitch, lifting his fastball Run Value from -10 to +6.
That progress was tied to his changeup. The pitch held hitters to a .198 xBA and was the offering he used most often in plate appearances, at 22.8%.
As the changeup played up, the fastball became harder to sit on. That helped push his strikeout rate from 12.2 to 21.5 and raised his whiff rate from 15.9 to 20.1.
The changeup was so effective that his +14 Run Value with the pitch placed him in the 99th percentile in the league. Among current free agents, that stands out. He also ranked in the 91st percentile in Chase%, 82nd in Whiff%, 95th in BB% and 67th in K%.
Still, the next step is obvious. Imanaga needs a better overall pitch mix, especially from his secondary offerings - the sweeper, sinker and slider - after his Breakings dropped from the 90th percentile in 2025 to the 17th this year.
That’s the gamble for Detroit. The home runs are real, and they’ve been there all along. But if Imanaga can clean up the rest of the mix, a short-term deal could end up looking like one of the smartest bets the Tigers make this winter.
In Other News...
Tigers Bullpen Move May Reveal Detroits Bigger Roster Plan
The Tigers have added another late-inning arm, agreeing to a one-year deal with Emilio Pagan as they continue to reshape a bullpen that needed help after a 76-86 season. Pagan arrives from the Reds with a track record that suggests Detroit is looking for more than just depth, but for a pitcher who can handle meaningful innings as the club tries to move back toward contention.
The reported $11 million commitment also hints at a broader roster approach, with the front office willing to spend on targeted upgrades rather than wait for the market to sort itself out. Pagans strong finish last season made him an appealing fit, and his arrival could be part of a larger plan that becomes clearer as the Tigers keep working through the rest of the winter. [Read more 🡒]
Tigers Face One Costly Decision In Shota Imanaga Pursuit
Shota Imanaga has quickly become one of the more intriguing names on the pitching market, and the Tigers are among the clubs keeping tabs on him. Detroit and San Diego have both shown interest in the left-hander, whose camp is looking for a multi-year commitment and a chance to pitch in October, which makes the fit a little more complicated than a simple bidding war.
For the Tigers, the appeal is obvious: Imanaga could step into a defined role and give the rotation a boost, but the contract picture is still murky. Analysts have pegged him for a two-year deal in the $34 million to $40 million range, though concerns about his home run rate could shape how long a team is willing to go, leaving Detroit with a decision that is as much about risk tolerance as talent. [Read more 🡒]
Tigers Rotation Pursuit Could Force Scott Harris Into A Bigger Gamble
Pitching has been the clear offseason lane for Scott Harris and the Tigers, and the Emilio Pagn signing only reinforced how seriously Detroit is treating that part of the roster. Even so, the club still has room to keep pushing, and renewed interest in free agent left-hander Shota Imanaga shows the front office is still weighing ways to raise the ceiling of the rotation rather than simply patching holes.
Imanagas availability after his time with the Cubs has put him back on Detroits radar, with contract structure and fit now part of the conversation. His style is being evaluated against the way the Tigers ballpark plays, which is exactly the kind of calculation that can turn a routine pursuit into a bigger gamble for Harris if he decides the upside is worth the cost. [Read more 🡒]