Tarik Skubal’s Arbitration Showdown Could Reshape MLB’s Pay Structure for Elite Pitchers
As the baseball world inches closer to spring, one of the most pivotal off-field battles of the offseason is set to take place-not on a mound, but in an arbitration room in Arizona. On Wednesday, Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal and the club are scheduled to face off in a hearing that could redefine the financial landscape for arbitration-eligible players, especially pitchers.
At the heart of the matter? A $13 million gap between what Skubal is seeking for the 2026 season and what the Tigers are offering.
Skubal, coming off back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards, filed at $32 million. The Tigers countered with $19 million.
That’s not just a disagreement-it’s the largest salary gap in the history of Major League Baseball’s arbitration process.
And the stakes? They’re enormous.
A Record-Breaking Ask
If Skubal wins the case and is awarded his $32 million figure, it would set a new high-water mark for arbitration salaries, eclipsing Juan Soto’s $31 million record set in 2024. It would also send a clear message across the league: elite performance in arbitration years-especially from pitchers-can command top-tier value.
That’s significant because arbitration has long been a battleground where pitchers, even dominant ones, often lag behind position players in earnings. David Price’s $19.75 million in 2015 has stood as the high bar for pitchers for over a decade.
Adjusted for inflation, that number would be closer to $27 million today. So if Skubal’s side prevails, it’s not just a win for one player-it could raise the ceiling for what arbitration-eligible pitchers can earn moving forward.
The Math Behind the Decision
The arbitration process doesn’t allow the panel to split the difference. It’s either the team’s number or the player’s.
In this case, that’s $19 million versus $32 million, with a midpoint of $25.5 million. That midpoint becomes a critical reference point.
If the panel deems Skubal’s 2025 season and overall body of work to be worth more than $25.5 million, he wins. Even by a dollar.
But if they see his value as falling short of that midpoint, the Tigers’ number prevails.
Why This Case Matters
Skubal’s case is more than just a financial tug-of-war-it’s a potential precedent-setter. Players become arbitration-eligible after three years of service time (or two-plus for a select group known as “Super Twos”), and for many, it’s the first real opportunity to earn seven-figure salaries.
But for elite players, arbitration can also become a limiting factor. They’re producing like superstars, but they’re still years away from the open market of free agency.
That’s why this hearing matters. Skubal isn’t just any pitcher.
He’s coming off a 2025 campaign where he posted a 2.21 ERA and was worth 6.5 WAR. That kind of production stacks up favorably against the best in the game-pitchers like Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, and Jacob deGrom.
All four are set to make more than $32 million in 2026, but they’ve already hit free agency. Skubal hasn’t.
And yet, in 2025, he was arguably better than all of them.
The Tigers’ Perspective
Detroit’s front office isn’t ignoring Skubal’s dominance, but they’re leaning on precedent. Their $19 million offer falls just below the record Price set in 2015, and they initially offered $19.8 million before reverting to the lower number in their official filing. That $19.8 million figure would have represented the largest arbitration salary ever for a pitcher and surpassed deGrom’s record $9.6 million raise from 2019.
The Tigers are known as a “file-and-trial” team-once the filing deadline passes, they typically don’t negotiate one-year deals. That adds another layer of tension to the proceedings. Meanwhile, Skubal’s agent, Scott Boras, has indicated that his camp remains open to further discussions, even with the hearing looming.
How the Numbers Stack Up
It’s not just about ERA and WAR-it’s about how Skubal compares to others at this stage of his career. When Price went through arbitration, he had accumulated 23 career bWAR.
Skubal currently sits at 17.9. But Price never had a two-year run quite like Skubal’s recent stretch.
And when deGrom secured his record-setting raise, he was coming off a 9.4 bWAR season with a 1.70 ERA. Skubal’s 6.5 WAR and 2.21 ERA in 2025 aren’t far off.
Boras is also leaning on a clause in MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement that allows fifth-year players to compare themselves to any player in the league, not just those with similar service time. That opens the door for Skubal to draw comps to some of the game’s highest-paid arms-regardless of whether they reached their numbers through arbitration or free agency.
A Turning Point for Arbitration?
This hearing could be a watershed moment. If Skubal wins, it may embolden other elite pitchers to push for record-setting arbitration salaries. If he loses, it could reinforce the idea that arbitration still has a ceiling-especially for pitchers.
Either way, the outcome will ripple beyond just one player and one team. With MLB’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire on Dec. 1, labor tensions are already simmering. A Skubal victory could become a rallying point for players seeking more leverage in their pre-free agency years.
What’s Next
There are still a couple of days left for both sides to avoid the hearing room altogether. But unless a last-minute agreement is reached, Wednesday’s arbitration panel will decide whether Skubal earns $32 million or $19 million for the 2026 season.
It’s the final arbitration year for Skubal, who has more than five years of service time. After this, he’ll be eligible for free agency-and given his trajectory, he’ll be one of the most coveted arms on the market.
For now, though, all eyes are on Arizona, where a three-person panel will decide not just a salary, but potentially the future of how elite pitchers are valued in arbitration.