Casey Mize’s season took a sharp turn after he left Detroit, and the numbers tell the story fast.
With the Tigers, Mize looked like a pitcher arriving. He put up a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts, earned his first All-Star selection and gave Detroit the version of himself the club had been waiting to see.
Then came the trade deadline deal to the San Diego Padres, and everything unraveled. In 10 starts with San Diego, Mize posted a 7.49 ERA, finished the year injured and was unable to pitch in the postseason.
The decline wasn’t just in run prevention. His command disappeared.
Mize’s SO/BB rate fell from 4.47 with Detroit to 1.32 with San Diego, while he gave up 13 home runs in just 44 ⅔ innings. Opponents turned that into a .979 OPS.
After allowing only five home runs with the Tigers and holding hitters to a .593 OPS, the right-hander suddenly looked far more vulnerable.
His pitch mix reflected the slide. The split-finger was the one offering that still held up, but the rest of his arsenal backed up.
The slider and sinker, two of his better pitches in Detroit, got hit hard in San Diego. His slider’s strikeout rate dropped from 23.6% to 2.6%, and opponents raised their batting average against it from .198 to .371.
The sinker fared even worse in terms of damage, with opponents’ slugging percentage jumping from .359 to 1.176.
A reunion with Detroit is technically possible, even if it doesn’t look like a top offseason priority for the Tigers right now. One detail worth noting is that Mize ended the season on the injured list after an injury on September 26.
There wasn’t much public discussion about whether a physical issue affected the drop in velocity or the downturn in results. If he’s healthy and able to test free agency, the bigger question becomes who is willing to bet on him bouncing back as a strike-thrower. The best version of Mize didn’t vanish forever, but the stretch in San Diego left real concern because it came under more pressure than he faced in Detroit.
That sets up two possible paths. Detroit was where Mize settled in early in his career in 2020 and where he developed into a top-of-the-rotation arm. At the same time, his market may not be strong enough to bring multiple years from a team that wants to take on that kind of risk without proof the command is back.
So the uncomfortable question hangs there: would Mize accept a one-year return to Detroit as a chance to rebuild his value? Or did the lack of an extension and the trade deadline move close that door for good?
A return would help both sides. If it doesn’t happen, it wouldn’t be a shock if Mize is limited to one-year offers in free agency.
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