Tarik Skubal just made arbitration history - and the ripple effects could be felt all the way from Detroit to Pittsburgh.
On Thursday, a three-person arbitration panel sided with Skubal over the Detroit Tigers, awarding the reigning two-time Cy Young winner a $32 million salary for the upcoming season. That’s a significant jump from the $19 million the Tigers had offered for his final year under club control. And while that’s a big win for Skubal, it could be an even bigger signal for what’s coming next in Major League Baseball - especially for a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates and their ace, Paul Skenes.
Let’s break this down.
Skubal’s Win Sets a New Bar
Skubal’s case wasn’t a slam dunk going in. Early in his career, he was solid but not spectacular - certainly not the kind of pitcher you’d expect to command over $30 million in arbitration.
But his transformation into one of the most dominant arms in the game over the past two seasons changed everything. Back-to-back Cy Youngs will do that.
The panel’s decision to side with Skubal isn’t just about rewarding past performance - it’s a precedent-setter. It tells us that if you dominate, even in a relatively short window, you can get paid like the best in the game. And that’s where Paul Skenes comes in.
What This Means for Paul Skenes and the Pirates
Skenes, still just 23, is already a household name in baseball circles. After making his debut in May 2024, he’s done nothing but live up to - and maybe even exceed - the hype.
He won the National League Rookie of the Year in his debut season, followed that up with a unanimous Cy Young selection in his first full year, and has already started two All-Star Games. Oh, and he’s posted a career ERA of 1.96 and racked up 13.5 WAR in just two seasons.
That’s not just elite - that’s generational.
So if Skubal, with a slower start and a shorter peak, can land $32 million in arbitration, what’s Skenes going to command when he hits his second year of eligibility? The number being floated is north of $32 million - maybe even pushing $40 million. And for a team like the Pirates, that’s where things get complicated.
The Harsh Reality for Small-Market Teams
The Pirates have never been big spenders. That’s not a knock - it’s just the reality of how they’ve operated.
And if Skenes continues on this trajectory, he’s going to be worth every penny of whatever massive number he demands in arbitration. But will Pittsburgh pay it?
That’s the question looming over the organization.
There’s also the timing to consider. Skenes hits arbitration in 2027 - the same year many around the league fear could be disrupted by a lockout.
If that happens, it throws even more uncertainty into the mix. Some believe 2026 could be Skenes’ final season in a Pirates uniform.
Not because of performance, but because the economics of keeping a pitcher of his caliber simply might not line up with the team’s long-term plans.
Looking Ahead
Right now, Skenes is everything a franchise could hope for: young, dominant, and marketable. He’s already shared the stage with stars like Aaron Judge and Skubal in World Baseball Classic promos.
He’s become a face of the game in record time. But that kind of stardom - especially when backed by elite production - comes with a price tag.
If Skubal’s arbitration win is the new standard, then the clock is officially ticking in Pittsburgh. The Pirates will either have to break with tradition and pay up, or prepare for the possibility that their ace may be wearing a different uniform sooner than fans would like.
For now, enjoy watching Skenes while you can. Because if he keeps pitching like this, he’s going to be worth every dollar he demands - whether it’s in Pittsburgh or somewhere else.