The San Diego Padres could be staring at a busy offseason, and starting pitcher Casey Mize is one of the names that might not be back.
San Diego enters the winter with as many as 17 potential free agents, including players with options, which means the roster could look very different by the time the 2027 season rolls around. Mize is part of that group after finishing the 2026 season in San Diego.
The right-hander was acquired before the 2026 MLB trade deadline, with the expectation that he would strengthen the Padres’ rotation. Instead, his time in San Diego fell flat.
He made 10 starts for the club and posted a 7.46 ERA in 44.2 innings, walking 19 and striking out 25. He also gave up twice as many home runs as he did in Detroit in almost half the games.
Mize’s season ended on the 15-day IL with a right ankle sprain, and he did not pitch in the postseason for the Padres. That came after a stretch that also included a severe ankle sprain during his fourth start with San Diego, plus earlier time missed because of an adductor/groin injury and a wrist injury.
The 29-year-old still drew enough attention to be ranked 16th among the best players on the open market by The Athletic. Jim Bowden projected him to land a three-year, $54 million contract this winter, with his former team, the Detroit Tigers, listed as the best fit.
"Mize had a great first half with the Tigers, posting a 2.70 ERA and 2.58 FIP in 86 2/3 innings. He was traded to the Padres at the deadline and struggled in San Diego, posting a 7.46 ERA over 10 starts," Bowden wrote.
"He allowed an alarming 56 hits in 44 2/3 innings and suffered a severe ankle sprain during his fourth start with the Padres which may have impacted his performance down the stretch. He also missed time earlier in the season with an adductor/groin injury and a wrist injury.
"Mize had Tommy John surgery in 2022. Any team that signs Mize will have to do their due diligence on his medicals. If he’s healthy, there is no reason he can’t bounce back and pitch as he did with the Tigers for a full season."
That Detroit run is what gives Mize his appeal. Before the trade, he had put together a strong first half with a 2.70 ERA across 16 starts for the Tigers and looked positioned for a better payday. San Diego did not get that version of him.
A reunion with the Padres appears unlikely, even though he’s one of the more notable arms available in a market short on top-end starting pitching. San Diego also paid a steep price to bring him in, sending top prospects Kash Mayfield and Jackson Wolf to Detroit in the deal that also brought back infielder Gage Workman.
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