Kenley Jansen’s march toward 500 saves is slipping out of reach, and the Tigers’ season has dragged that reality right along with it.
With nine games left, Jansen has 496 career saves and has converted 20 of 26 chances this year. That’s a long way from the pace he needed, especially in a season where the Tigers have been allergic to clean finishes.
Detroit has blown 32 saves, the second-most in baseball, and has actually earned 30. The bigger issue, though, has been how often games unravel before the ninth inning even becomes the story.
The Tigers have lost 44 games in which they held a lead at some point. They’re 21-48 in games decided by two runs or fewer. That’s how a club can carry the fourth-best run differential in the American League at plus-74 and still be staring at elimination from playoff contention, one loss away from locking in its first losing season in three years.
For Jansen, it has been a strange fit. He has called it a “Terrible year,” and by his own standards it has been frustrating.
Still, the underlying numbers suggest he’s not simply been washed away by age or bad results. His hard-hit rate allowed is 36.4%.
His expected batting average is .199, and his expected slugging percentage is .367, both in line with his career marks.
His cutter, even if it hasn’t been as crisp as in past seasons, still has a plus-5 run value and has held hitters to a .176 average. His slider has taken a real step forward, improving from a minus-3 run value to a plus-3 while limiting hitters to .100, with just two hits in 20 at-bats and no extra-base hits.
The damage has come in the moments closers can’t afford it. Jansen’s 13% walk rate is a career high.
He has also allowed two walk-off homers on mislocated sinkers and five homers off his cutter. With a closer, every miss gets magnified.
That’s what makes the 500-save chase so tough right now. Jansen sits at 496, trying to become just the third pitcher ever to reach the milestone, alongside Mariano Rivera (652) and Trevor Hoffman (601). But he says the chances have simply not lined up.
“I don’t even want to think about it,” he said. “I can’t control the outcome.”
He added, “This is two years now that I already thought I’d get there,” Jansen said. “But I never have the chance.
Since 2022, I haven’t had a 30-save season. The opportunities have been down.”
The opportunities have indeed been scarce. Since 2022, he’s had 33, 31 and 30 save chances, and this season he’s gotten 26 chances in 47 games, his fewest appearances in any full season.
For now, he’s keeping the focus simple.
“It is what it is,” he said. “If it happens, it happens. If not, we will try to get it next year.”
If he does get there in a Tigers uniform, all the better.
“Well,” he said, laughing. “Talk to them about picking up my option. If not, I will get it somewhere else.”
Detroit holds a $12 million option on the 38-year-old for 2027, with a $2 million buyout attached. The math does not exactly point toward the Tigers bringing him back.
Still, Jansen says the emotion might not hit until the number is right there.
“I think it will get to me when I am at 499 and I get the call and I’m about to go in,” Jansen said. “That’s when I’ll feel it.”
The Tigers visit the White Sox on Saturday at Rate Field, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. Jackson Jobe gets the ball for Detroit after a career-best outing against the Rockies, when he worked 6.1 innings, struck out eight and beat a lineup of nine left-handed hitters. He found the zone with his four-seamer and sinker, then used that command to set up 11 whiffs on 17 swings with his slider and curveball.
Sean Burke starts for Chicago. The Tigers will see him for the third time.
He held them to one run in 5.1 innings in May, then Detroit got to him for four runs in 4.1 innings at Comerica Park in August. Burke leans on a fastball that sits at 94-95 mph, comes downhill with 6-8 arm extension and a 2,500-rpm spin rate, and opponents have hit .181 against it.
He also mixes in sinkers, knuckle-curves and sliders, with cutters and changeups used against lefties.
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