The Tigers have money to spend this offseason, but the front office can’t afford to spend it badly. That’s the basic problem with the idea of bringing Casey Mize back.
Mize, who was dealt to the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline, reportedly may be eyeing a deal in the neighborhood of six years and $115 million once he reaches free agency. If that number holds up, Detroit should be out immediately. A price like that removes any real argument for a reunion.
The attraction is easy to understand. Mize was once one of the most popular arms in the organization, and for years there was hope he’d rediscover the form that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft. He also posted a 2.70 ERA with the Tigers this season, which makes the annual number look manageable at first glance.
But the contract length is the red flag, and it’s a big one. Detroit should not be tying up roughly $20 million per year in a pitcher who has had a hard time staying healthy across his MLB career, will be 30 in 2027, and faded badly after the move to San Diego. Over his final two months with the Padres, Mize struggled through a 6.26 ERA and 1-2 record in August, then an 8.72 ERA and 1-2 record in September, finishing with 25 total strikeouts in 44 2/3 innings.
That kind of finish matters. It’s hard to justify a massive multiyear commitment to someone who, despite flashes, now looks more like a No. 3 or No. 4 starter than the front-line arm people once projected. He appeared to have the look of a No. 2 starter in 2026, but the injuries and the late-season collapse kept the ceiling from becoming reality.
The Tigers can aim higher.
Chris Ilitch needs to spend, but he needs to spend well. If Mize is headed into a market that could pay him like a $100 million starter, Detroit should be looking elsewhere for that kind of impact. There are real names out there: Tarik Skubal, Drew Rasmussen, Shota Imanaga, Sandy Alcantara, Kris Bubic, Trevor Rogers, and Robbie Ray.
That’s the lane for a real rotation addition. Why commit major money to a pitcher with health questions when a bigger arm could be available for only a few million more?
The Tigers should have room to maneuver after missing out on Skubal, trading both him and Mize, and potentially moving on from Gleyber Torres and other sizable contracts. The money should be there. The challenge is making sure it goes to the right place.
Detroit can still make a splash. It just shouldn’t be on Casey Mize.
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Scott Harris and the front office now have to decide how aggressive they want to be in chasing help, because this is not a problem they can treat as a side project. Free agency offers a few paths, including established relievers who could stabilize the back end, but the market will decide whether Detroit can land the kind of arm it needs to turn close games into wins. [Read more 🡒]