Casey Mize is finally giving the Tigers the version they spent years waiting for, but that doesn’t mean Detroit’s next move is obvious.
The former No. 1 overall pick has battled through injuries, stops and starts, and plenty of frustration since the club took him with the first pick of the 2018 MLB Draft. In his first five major league seasons, he logged just 291 innings and posted a 4.36 ERA. Last year, he started to look like he was turning the corner, though his 2025 season came with a split personality: a 3.15 ERA before the All-Star break, then a 4.92 mark after it.
This season, Mize has pushed forward again. He owns a 2.79 ERA across 14 starts and 77 1/3 innings, and even with injuries popping up once more, he has already topped his 2025 fWAR total. He sits at 2.6 fWAR in roughly half the innings he threw last year, after finishing 2025 at 2.4.
That kind of production naturally raises the extension question, especially with Mize headed toward free agency. But as Tigers insider Corey Stavenhagen points out, the answer isn’t clean.
Detroit’s bigger picture is messy enough on its own. The Tigers went 22-14 from June 1 to the All-Star break, the best record in the American League over that stretch, yet they still sit 6.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central and 3.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot.
According to Stavenhagen, the Mize decision may depend heavily on whether the Tigers think they can act like buyers at the trade deadline. They’re close enough to stay in the conversation, but the path is crowded. Detroit would need to climb over six teams to grab the final wild card berth, while the Twins, Guardians, and White Sox are all ahead of them in the division race.
That opens up another possibility: moving Mize at the deadline. Stavenhagen draws a line to the 2024 deal that sent Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers, with the idea that Detroit could deal Mize for prospects and still circle back to him in free agency.
There’s also the longer view to consider. Flaherty, who won't be missed, is a free agent this winter, and so is Tarik Skubal. The rotation picture for 2027 is far from settled.
Money may be the biggest obstacle of all. Stavenhagen speculates that if Mize gets beyond 3 fWAR, he could command a deal worth $25 million per year.
A longer-term contract designed to lower the annual number would carry its own risk because of Mize’s injury history. And with Valdez’s contract already on the books, a big commitment to Mize would likely mean a future without Skubal.
There’s also the CBA situation hanging over everything.
For all the progress Mize has made, the Tigers may still be better off treating him as a valuable trade chip rather than a pitcher to lock up right now. His underlying numbers remain strong, but his average fastball velocity has slipped nearly a mile per hour, from 94.7 MPH last year to 93.9 so far this season.
That’s the kind of detail Detroit can’t ignore. If Mize is at peak value, the Tigers may have to decide whether to cash in now or keep betting on a future that remains uncertain.
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