The Detroit Red Wings are staring at a familiar kind of fork in the road, and the conversation around them is getting louder by the day.
On the premier episode of the TFP Hotstove for the 2026-27 season on SiriusXM NHL Network Radio, Dennis Bernstein, Dave Pagnotta and Ryan Paton all circled the same question: does Detroit keep trying to patch things together, or does it finally take a harder reset?
Bernstein didn’t waste much time getting to the point.
“One team’s in big trouble. The last team you named: Detroit.”
Paton agreed right away, and Bernstein doubled down on the outlook.
“That’s it’s not a good situation there.”
When Paton asked whether that meant a major slide from the 92-point range, Bernstein painted a bleak picture.
“Massive? No.
Yeah. 10 point, like 85 point (.500) team. Don’t make the playoffs.
Don’t come close.”
Pagnotta said Detroit is especially interesting because the Dylan Larkin trade request still hangs over everything. He said the ask has evolved from a smaller group of teams to a much wider market, and that interim GM Shawn Horcoff is now the one who has to sort through the mess.
He pointed to the need to determine the right return, but also to the broader roster questions sitting behind the Larkin situation. Alex DeBrincat is in the final year of his deal, and Pagnotta said his next contract could land in a massive range if he keeps producing at the level he showed last season.
“Like, you can certainly see him being in the $11 million- $12 million range. I don’t even know if I’m lowballing that one, but if he replicates the season he had last year at 84 points, or whatever it was, you can see that happening.”
Pagnotta also noted that Andrew Copp, Mason Appleton and Justin Faulk are pending UFAs, which only adds to the uncertainty. In his view, Detroit may be positioned for an “escalated rebuild” rather than another attempt to force the current group into contention.
“Like, I know this team wants to go through their little, you know, try to escalate this and not have another prolonged rebuild, but they’re in a prime position to kind of have an escalated rebuild with some of these pieces that they could potentially move between now and the March 1 trade deadline.”
He also pointed out that the Red Wings do not have a goalie signed for next season who is currently on the roster.
“So this could- I wouldn’t be shocked if we see the Detroit Red Wings rejig this kind of thing on the fly and have them as a bottom-five team in the league.”
Paton added that Detroit’s current cap space is close to $20 million.
Emily Kaplan later reported on ESPN ahead of Rangers-Bruins that the teams who have checked in on Larkin are not clear on what Detroit actually wants to do. She said the trade request remains in place, but that there is still a path for Larkin to stay with the Red Wings, and that he will begin the season in Detroit.
“Now, I do think the Red Wings have talked to a couple of different teams about trade situations, but those teams have told me they’re not sure that Detroit really knows what they want to do here. And they feel like to complete a trade, Detroit’s probably going to have to ask for less than its asking price, and right now they’re not accepting futures. They might have to consider that.”
The uncertainty around Larkin is only part of the larger picture. According to NHLRumors.com, the Red Wings want to stay competitive because they have already lost Patrick Kane because of this trade request and could also lose Alex DeBrincat. If Detroit stretches out the rebuild, there are real questions about what that says to Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.
That leaves the organization with another problem that keeps surfacing: who is actually making the decisions? Is it Horcoff?
Is it Chris Ilitch? The situation around Simon Edvinsson, who is back in Sweden without a contract, only makes that question louder.
For a franchise that once sold itself as a destination, Detroit is now trying to prove it can still be one.
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