Once the NHL calendar flips back on after the Winter Olympics in Milan, we’ll be staring down the final stretch of the regular season - a sprint to the playoffs, a flurry of trade deadline moves, and yes, the sharpening of individual award races. One of the most intriguing battles? The Norris Trophy - the hardware handed to the league’s top all-around defenseman.
For much of the season, Cale Makar has been the frontrunner. And for good reason.
He’s the engine of Colorado’s high-flying offense and a smooth, dynamic presence on the back end. But if we’re talking about defensive dominance - not just flashy point totals - then Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings deserves to be very much in this conversation.
Let’s break it down.
Seider’s Defensive Masterclass
The Norris Trophy, by definition, goes to the best defenseman. But in practice, it often leans heavily on offensive output.
Case in point: Erik Karlsson’s win in 2022-23. He racked up 101 points, but his defensive numbers told a different story - a -26 plus/minus and 126 even-strength goals against while on the ice.
Still, the offensive production carried him to the podium.
Now, to be clear, Makar is nowhere near that kind of defensive liability. He’s a complete player.
But Seider? He’s putting on a defensive clinic this season - and the numbers back it up.
Seider leads all top Norris candidates with a 57.7% expected goals (xG) rate, largely fueled by allowing just 2.22 expected goals against per 60 minutes. That’s elite territory, especially when you factor in the heavy minutes and tough matchups he’s logging for Detroit. His five-on-five impact is among the best in the league, and it’s not just eye-test stuff - the analytics are screaming his name.
The Value Breakdown
Let’s talk value - net rating, to be specific. Seider boasts a +15.7 net rating, which comes from a +9.4 defensive rating (outstanding) and a +6.3 offensive rating. That puts him second overall, just behind Makar, who holds a +16.0 net rating thanks to a +11.6 offensive rating and +4.5 on defense.
So yes, Makar edges him out in total value - but the margin is razor-thin. And the kicker? Seider’s value is primarily driven by defense, which is incredibly rare in today’s NHL, where offensive defensemen often dominate the spotlight.
Offensive Output: Makar Still Leads
Offensively, Makar has the edge, and it’s not insignificant. Through 55 games, he’s tallied 15 goals and 42 assists for 57 points - a point-per-game pace that’s impressive for any player, let alone a defenseman.
Seider, meanwhile, has seven goals and 31 assists through 58 games. His scoring has cooled off a bit recently - just seven points in his last 15 games - which might be the only thing keeping this race from being a dead heat.
But here’s the thing: Seider isn’t just hanging around in this race. He’s redefining what a shutdown defenseman can mean in the modern NHL. He’s doing the hard work - the kind that doesn’t always show up on the scoresheet but wins games.
Down the Stretch
With 20-plus games left after the Olympics, there’s still time for this race to shift. Makar could pull away with a late-season scoring surge.
Or Seider could tighten the gap with a return to early-season offensive form. Either way, both players are delivering elite-level performances - just in different ways.
For Detroit, this is more than just a trophy chase. It’s validation.
Since Niklas Lidstrom’s retirement, the Red Wings have been searching for their next great defenseman. In Moritz Seider, they’ve found him.
He’s not just good - he’s foundational.
So while Makar may still be the favorite, Seider is making sure this Norris race is anything but a foregone conclusion. And if voters are truly paying attention to what’s happening in the defensive zone, they’ll have a tough decision to make come award season.