The Detroit Red Wings are in a position fans haven’t seen in a while: firmly in the playoff hunt, with a real shot to break their postseason drought. At 33-19-6, they hold the eighth-best record in the NHL and have been led by a core group that’s stepped up in a big way-Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider, and goaltender John Gibson have all played pivotal roles in getting Detroit to this point.
But with the Atlantic Division being as unforgiving as ever, there’s no coasting to the finish line. The Red Wings face the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the league, and every point from here on out is going to matter. Let’s break down where this team stands right now, what the numbers are telling us, and what needs to happen if Detroit wants to punch its ticket to the postseason.
The Numbers: A Mixed Bag
Through 58 games, Detroit’s overall performance paints a picture of a team that’s been solid but not without its flaws.
Overall Metrics:
- Points Percentage: .621 (8th in NHL)
- Goals For/Game: 2.97 (20th)
- Goals Against/Game: 2.97 (12th)
- Power Play: 23.1% (9th)
- Penalty Kill: 79.6% (15th)
At even strength, the picture gets a little more nuanced.
5-on-5 Offense:
- Corsi For/60: 57.61 (15th)
- Goals For/60: 2.11 (27th)
- Expected Goals For/60: 2.66 (14th)
- High-Danger Chances For/60: 10.96 (23rd)
5-on-5 Defense:
- Corsi Against/60: 59.57 (25th)
- Goals Against/60: 2.43 (13th)
- Expected Goals Against/60: 2.66 (15th)
- High-Danger Chances Against/60: 11.56 (17th)
The takeaway? Detroit’s been decent defensively and average in terms of puck possession, but their offensive production at 5-on-5 has been underwhelming. And when you dig into the high-danger numbers, it becomes clear why.
The Offense: Needs a Spark
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: Detroit’s 5-on-5 scoring just hasn’t been there. Their Goals For per 60 (GF/60) ranks near the bottom of the league, and while their Expected Goals For (xGF/60) is middle-of-the-pack, it’s likely inflated by volume rather than quality. The low High-Danger Chances For per 60 (HDCF/60) suggests they’re settling for perimeter shots and not generating enough chaos in the high-danger areas-those gritty, contested spots near the crease where goals are born.
Since January 1, Red Wings forwards have only managed 14 even-strength goals. That’s a concerning number, especially when you consider that eight of those came from the top six and six from the bottom six-four of those courtesy of J.T.
Compher. That’s not enough production from your depth lines, and it’s certainly not sustainable if you’re trying to outlast teams like Tampa Bay or Florida in the playoff chase.
The power play, which had been a strength earlier in the season, has cooled off too. That’s another area that needs to reignite, especially when games tighten up down the stretch.
Who Can Help?
This is where head coach Todd McLellan has a challenge on his hands. Can he squeeze more offense out of this group as currently constructed?
Maybe. But the sample size suggests the Red Wings might need a little outside help.
One internal option worth watching: Michael Brandsegg-Nygard. During a nine-game stint earlier this season, he flashed some serious potential.
His high-danger metrics were among the best on the team-4.92 individual high-danger chances per 60, 1.23 rush attempts per 60, and 9.22 individual scoring chances per 60. Yes, it’s a small sample, but those numbers jump off the page.
He brings a physical edge and a willingness to get to the dirty areas-exactly what Detroit needs more of right now.
Still, if the Red Wings are serious about making a push, a trade deadline addition to bolster the forward group wouldn’t hurt. Whether it’s a middle-six winger who can drive play or a net-front presence on the power play, some offensive reinforcement feels necessary.
The Defense: Quietly Steady
On the flip side, Detroit’s defensive game has quietly improved as the season’s gone on. Their Goals Against per 60 (GA/60), Expected Goals Against (xGA/60), and High-Danger Chances Against (HDCA/60) have all trended in the right direction since the calendar flipped to 2026.
Even more encouraging? Their High-Danger Shots Against per 60 (HDSA/60)-a more refined subset of HDCA-ranks well league-wide.
That tells us that while they might be giving up chances in dangerous areas, fewer of those are actually getting through to the net. That’s a testament to good shot-blocking, active sticks, and strong defensive positioning.
Help is also on the way. Simon Edvinsson is expected to return after the Olympic break, and his presence should give Detroit two top-pairing-caliber defensemen who can log heavy minutes. That kind of stability at the top of the lineup can have a ripple effect, allowing the rest of the D corps to slot into more manageable roles.
That said, adding another top-four blueliner at the deadline would be a smart insurance policy. Injuries happen, and playoff teams are built on depth. Reinforcing the second pair would not only give the Red Wings more flexibility but also help protect John Gibson and Cam Talbot down the stretch.
Goaltending: Managing the Workload
Speaking of Gibson, he’s been excellent. But the Red Wings need to be careful here.
He’s logged a lot of minutes, and with his age and injury history, overuse is a real concern. Cam Talbot has proven he can handle a decent workload, and Detroit would be wise to give him more starts as the regular season winds down.
Keeping both goaltenders fresh-mentally and physically-will be critical if they want to make noise in April.
The Road Ahead
According to MoneyPuck, the Red Wings have a 78.3% chance of making the playoffs. That’s a strong position, but far from a lock.
The Atlantic Division is a gauntlet. Tampa Bay, Montreal, Buffalo, and possibly Boston are all expected to be active at the deadline.
Ottawa and Florida are still in the mix. There’s no margin for error.
To get over the hump and secure a postseason berth for the first time since Dylan Larkin’s rookie year, Detroit needs to:
- Find more offense at 5-on-5-whether it’s through internal development or external help
- Get greater contributions from the bottom six, particularly in the scoring department
- Add defensive depth to solidify the blue line and create a more balanced rotation
- Manage the goalie workload, ensuring Gibson and Talbot are both ready for the stretch run
And let’s not forget the mental side of this. The Olympic break can be a momentum killer.
Some players will return tired or out of rhythm. Others may feel the weight of ending a long playoff drought.
Detroit can’t afford a post-break slump or a late-season collapse-not in this division, not with this schedule.
Bottom Line
The Red Wings are in the fight. They’ve earned this spot, but the job’s not done.
The next few weeks will define their season. If they can tighten up the offense, stay healthy on the back end, and manage their goaltending smartly, they’ve got every chance to return to playoff hockey.
Now it’s about execution. The opportunity is right in front of them. Time to take it.