I’ll be the first to admit it: I was wrong about William Wallinder.
Before the season started, the expectation was that the Detroit Red Wings might end up putting the rookie defenseman on waivers. With Anton Johansson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka turning heads, Wallinder looked like the odd man out.
Instead, he’s spent the early part of the season forcing a second look.
Through nine games, the 2020 second-round pick has two goals and two assists for four points. He’s averaging 15:29 per night on Detroit’s second pairing with Justin Faulk, and the numbers around that duo have been eye-opening.
Per Moneypuck, Wallinder and Faulk have combined for a 64.9% expected goals mark, which ranks as the second-best expected goals percentage among defensive pairings. Only Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley of the Dallas Stars are ahead of them by a few percentage points.
Even more striking, the Wallinder-Faulk pairing leads the NHL in expected goals at even-strength and 5v5.
That kind of start makes it fair to ask whether this is real. The answer, at least for now, is that Wallinder is still a rookie, and the bumps that come with that are part of the package. He’s had his rough moments, including an ugly giveaway against the San Jose Sharks, but he’s also looked better as the games have piled up.
His ice time tells that story pretty clearly. Over his last five games, he’s gone from 13:34 against Vancouver on Oct. 22 to 13:22 against Calgary on Oct. 24, then jumped to 17:51 against Edmonton on Oct. 26, 17:27 against Chicago on Oct. 29, and 20:08 against St.
Louis on Oct. 31.
That game against the Blues was the most average time on ice he’s logged so far, which says plenty about how head coach Todd McLellan is viewing him. The more Wallinder plays, the more trust he seems to earn, and that trust is showing up in tougher usage.
The contrast with last season is hard to miss. Justin Faulk and Ben Chiarot were among the NHL’s worst defensive pairings by expected goals percentage.
This year, Faulk has found a partner who appears to fit his game far better. Based on the numbers so far, Wallinder has been more effective with Faulk than any other Red Wings defense partner has been.
The bigger question is what happens when Faulk is no longer there.
At some point, Faulk will either reach free agency or be traded, and that’s when Detroit will get a much clearer read on Wallinder. Right now, the setup makes it difficult to know whether Wallinder is benefiting from Faulk’s presence or whether he’s truly driving the strong underlying results himself, since he hasn’t been moved around much in the lineup.
Eventually, though, Wallinder will have to handle the second pair on his own.
Who he ends up with is still an open question. If Detroit views Axel Sandin-Pellikka as a future top-four defenseman, Wallinder could be the natural fit beside him.
The Red Wings have plenty to sort through in the coming weeks, and Faulk’s future is one of those decisions. It isn’t the top item on the list right now, but interim GM Shawn Horcoff will need to keep a close eye on Wallinder as the season goes on.
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