When it comes to moving a proven NHL player, draft picks just don’t carry the same weight they used to - and that reality sits right at the center of the Dylan Larkin discussion.
Utah Mammoth general manager Bill Armstrong put it plainly when he explained why he matched the offer sheet for center Barrett Hayton. His point applies just as cleanly to any team weighing a deal for Larkin.
“A second-round pick has about a 30 percent chance of playing in the NHL,” Armstrong said. “It doesn’t make sense.
We don’t need a pick off in the future. We need a player who is a proven NHLer.”
Armstrong was talking about the compensation Utah would have received for Hayton, and his reasoning showed why a team can’t always afford to gamble on uncertainty when it already has a regular in the lineup. If Steve Yzerman were the kind of GM who spoke often with the media, he could make the same case about Larkin.
Yzerman has already made his stance clear: he won’t take an offer for Larkin unless it includes proven NHL talent. That thinking lines up with how more front offices are valuing draft picks now, especially when the player being moved is already established.
A recent Detroit Hockey Now review of draft picks from 2011 to 2020 found that second-round picks produced true NHLers about 34 percent of the time. The outlet defined a true NHLer as a player with 200 games played.
The first round, though, isn’t one big bucket. The top half of the round is a different story than the bottom half.
Picks from No. 1 to No. 15 gave teams an 83% chance of landing a regular. From No. 16 to No. 32, that number dropped to 50 to 55%.
That matters because teams most willing to trade first-round picks are often the better teams - and those are usually the clubs selecting outside the top 15. In other words, the pick sounds shiny, but the odds are not nearly as strong as they look on paper.
That’s why so many general managers now approach these deals with their eyes open. Draft picks still have value, but they are not enough on their own when a team is staring at the loss of a proven player.
For Yzerman, that means a Larkin return would need more than future hope. Ideally, he would want a package built around a proven player or two, plus a first-round pick.
Elsewhere around the Red Wings, Tyler Angle is headed overseas. The Grand Rapids Griffins center, who had 62 games and 27 points, signed to play with Leksand IF next season.
The club is in Sweden’s 2nd Tier Hockeyallsvenskan. Angle, 25, is Canadian, previously spent a season in Germany, and has played four NHL games with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Also in the Red Wings orbit, Bob Duff raised the question of whether last season’s playoff outcome might have changed the problems Detroit is dealing with this summer. He asked whether Larkin would have wanted a trade if the team had qualified, and whether Patrick Kane would be planning to stay.
The Detroit Sports Media’s choice of Emmitt Finnie as Red Wings Rookie of the Year also serves as a reminder that his role next season is still unsettled.
And Max Smith is trying to sort out where goalie Michal Postava fits in the Red Wings organization next season.
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Yzerman does have time to work through it, with months still left to find a deal that makes sense for the organization. The wrinkle is that Detroit is not approaching this like a standard futures swap, which narrows the field and makes the negotiation more delicate. If nothing comes together, Larkin could still be on the roster when the season opens, a possibility that keeps this from being a clean break and leaves the Red Wings waiting on a decision that could define the direction of the whole offseason. [Read more 🡒]