The Detroit Red Wings have a scoring problem hanging over the roster, and it gets a lot bigger if Dylan Larkin is moved.
Detroit finished 22nd in the NHL in goals last season, and two of its top five scorers - Patrick Kane and James van Riemsdyk - are gone. If Larkin also leaves, the Red Wings would be losing 27.1% of their offense. Viktor Arvidsson helps, with an expected boost of 20 to 25 goals, but that still leaves the club about 40 goals shy of last season’s total.
That’s why the return in any Larkin deal matters so much. Outgoing GM Steve Yzerman told prospective suitors he wanted players who can help right away, not draft picks and prospects. If Detroit sends Larkin out and doesn’t replace that scoring, the playoff path gets extremely narrow.
The math is harsh. NHL teams can lean on defense and goaltending once the postseason starts, but getting there still requires enough offense.
In 2025-26, the top 14 scoring teams all made the playoffs. Detroit would likely need about 25 more goals than it scored last season to get into that range, moving from 239 to roughly 264.
If Larkin is traded for futures, the current roster projects to around 200 goals based on last season’s numbers.
That’s why the picks-versus-proven-players debate is so important in a Larkin return. A recent study cited in the discussion showed first-round picks after No. 15 have only a 50 to 55 percent chance of playing 200 or more NHL games, while second-round picks have about a 34 percent chance of reaching that mark.
There is still another path: keeping Larkin. That possibility has gained some traction after a social media post showed him working out in Red Wings colors. It might not mean anything, but it has become part of the conversation.
If Larkin stays, Detroit’s projection jumps to 230 goals. Larkin is one of three active centers to score 30 or more goals in five straight seasons, and keeping that production in-house changes the outlook immediately.
From there, the Red Wings would still need their younger players to take a step. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Marco Kasper could be asked to chip in 15 goals apiece.
Kasper’s case looks especially strong if he lands in the top six, and he already scored 19 goals as a rookie. Emmitt Finnie had 13 goals last season, and his second-year ceiling is still unclear.
Carter Mazur could also be in the mix for 10 or more goals on the third line, particularly if Nate Danielson is his center. Danielson’s offense may end up being one of Detroit’s key variables.
For now, the bottom line is simple: the Red Wings need a lot to break their way if they’re going to score enough to matter in the playoff race.
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Tolvanen is still available weeks into free agency, which only adds to the sense that the market has not quite settled around him yet. For Detroit, the appeal is easy enough to see: a player who could fit into the top six and give the lineup more depth while the front office situation sorts itself out, even if nothing official has been reported and the next step remains unclear. [Read more 🡒]